航运衍生品数据日报-20250605

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a rising trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, demand recovery on US routes, and trade policy news [8]. - It is recommended to hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Current and Previous Values and Changes: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value of 1586; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.92% from 1107. SCFI - US West has a current value of 5172, a 57.92% increase from 3275; SCFIS - US West is at 1718, down 0.12% from 1720; SCFI - US East is 6243, up 45.73% from 4284; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1587, up 20.50% from 1317. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1252, up 0.40% from 1247; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3061, up 31.49% from 2328 [5]. 3.2 Shipping Derivatives Contracts - Contract Prices and Changes: Contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc. have shown price increases. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1970.3, up 4.02% from 1894.1; EC2508 is at 2199.1, up 4.71% from 2100.2 [5]. - Contract Positions and Changes: There are changes in contract positions. For instance, EC2506's position has decreased by 1467 from 10553 to 9086, while EC2508's position has increased by 2192 from 45769 to 47961 [5]. - Monthly Spreads and Changes: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of 816.1, up 54.9 from 761.2; the 12 - 2 spread is - 187.1, up 13.2 from - 200.3; the 12 - 4 spread is 330.9, down 26.5 from 357.4 [5]. 3.3 Trade Friction News - Sino - US Trade: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - EU - US Trade: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - US Trade Policy: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term, but tariffs on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum will continue [7]. 3.4 Market Situation and Strategy - Spot Market: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates on European routes in June. For example, MSC's online opening price is 2600$/FEU, and Maersk's price has increased from 2200$/FEU to 2300$/FEU. Some companies are also looking to raise prices in late June [8]. - Futures Market: Last week, the main - contract futures price declined due to the unmet expectations of the US - route rush shipping. This week, the 6 - and 8 - month contracts are driving up the prices of far - month contracts due to the expected price increase in late June [8]. - Strategy: Hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].