经济高弹性期下的政策前瞻与资产配置策略：应时而变

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's economy is entering a high elasticity period, with structural growth opportunities in high-end manufacturing, urban renewal, and service consumption, supported by domestic investment policies [6][8][29] - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of over 8% due to domestic demand expansion policies, while infrastructure investment growth may exceed 9% [6][8][20] - The report suggests that the real estate market is shifting towards "quality over quantity," which will help stabilize prices amid reduced supply [6][29] Group 2 - The report identifies short, medium, and long-term industry selection strategies, emphasizing sectors such as intelligent manufacturing, beverage and dairy, and chemical pharmaceuticals for short-term focus [6][7] - In the medium term, the report notes that trade conflicts have limited impact on China's industrial development, with technology, services, and education sectors showing strong growth [6][7] - Long-term investment opportunities are seen in high-end manufacturing, pharmaceutical biotechnology, and new discretionary consumption as interest rates decline [6][7] Group 3 - The report indicates that the broad infrastructure investment growth rate is expected to decline slightly in the third quarter, with a projected annual growth rate of over 9% [20][22] - Specific sectors such as electricity, heat, gas, and water supply are experiencing significant investment growth, with fixed asset investment in these areas increasing by 25.5% [20][22] - The report also notes that the approval of central and local projects is accelerating, which will support infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [20][22] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that consumer confidence remains weak, with retail sales growth driven primarily by "trade-in" policies, which are expected to support a modest recovery in consumption [41][43] - The service retail sector is outpacing goods retail, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% compared to 4.7% for goods retail [48] - The report highlights the potential of the "谷子经济" (Guzi Economy), which focuses on emotional value through cultural IP, as a new consumption driver [48]