瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the output of restored domestic methanol production capacity exceeds that of overhauled and reduced - capacity production, leading to a slight increase in overall output. Due to insufficient transportation capacity in the northwest production area, the enterprise shipping rhythm has slowed down, and domestic methanol enterprise inventories have continued to increase this week. Outer - ship unloading is basically in line with expectations, and methanol port inventories have increased as scheduled. In the demand aspect, the restart of Ningxia Baofeng Phase II and the load increase of Shandong Hengtong have led to an increase in the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2259 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 60 yuan/ton, with no change; the main contract's open interest is 812,450 lots, down 23,148 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 78,295 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 4,600, up 2,000 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2300 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1892.5 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan; the East - Northwest price difference is 407.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 41 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 262 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 320 dollars/ton, with no change; FOB Rotterdam is 265 euros/ton, up 8 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 58 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.71 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 42.23 tons, up 5.13 tons; in South China ports, it is 15.89 tons, up 0.69 tons; the methanol import profit is 16.75 yuan/ton, up 17.86 yuan; the monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, up 31.47 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 262,200 tons, up 12,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 87.19%, up 0.15 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 51.04%, up 0.24 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 76%, with no change; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 10.25%, up 0.73 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 54.24%, down 1.11 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 85.19%, up 1.37 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins paper profit is - 666 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.42%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.55%, down 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.04%, down 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.05%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of June 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.05 tons, up 1.55 tons, a 4.38% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons, up 1.23 tons, a 4.92% increase. The total methanol port inventory in China is 58.12 tons, up 5.82 tons. As of June 5, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate is 86.88%, up 1.69 percentage points [2].