Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-05 09:15Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened due to the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the planned nickel ore export ban in the Philippines, along with the accelerated release of nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia and the decline in nickel - iron prices. The supply side maintains normal production, with steel mills cutting the production of 300 - series stainless steel, but the supply pressure still exists as the total output is at a historical high. The demand side enters the traditional off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, pressure on export demand, and a cautious attitude towards high - priced goods from downstream. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory. Technically, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2,762 lots, down 197 lots; the main contract position is 68,854 lots, down 5,161 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 123,122 tons, down 1,269 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main contract basis is 550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,700 metal tons, down 1,100 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, up 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 816,900 tons, down 196,400 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 123,100 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 960 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8243 million tons, down 77,500 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 606,200 tons, down 21,000 tons; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 35,000 units, down 14,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 12,000 units, down 1,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 26,000 units, down 7,200 units [2] Industry News - US President Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates; the ADP employment in the US in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000; the Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in US economic activity, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressure; the Indonesian government implemented the PNBP policy, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippine government planned a nickel ore export ban from June 2025; the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%, and the cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2] Key Points to Focus On - No news on the day [2]