Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-05 09:13Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although the overall profit on the supply - side has declined, natural soda ash projects maintain high profits. Traditional backward - capacity maintenance has intensified, and the expansion of natural soda ash project capacity has led to an increase in production and capacity utilization, resulting in significant supply pressure. On the demand side, while futures and spot traders are active and restocking is sufficient, the decline in soda ash spot prices is expected to lead to a slowdown in demand and a decrease in the de - stocking speed. The main downstream industries of soda ash, such as float glass and photovoltaic glass, are not optimistic. Therefore, it is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract after a rebound [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, the resumption of production lines in some areas has increased the weekly output, but the overall industry profit is poor, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is limited, so the subsequent resumption of production may decline. On the demand side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and demand will weaken further in the traditional off - season. Downstream deep - processing orders are unstable, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs. The increase in the inventory of automobile glass factories cannot offset the weak demand related to real estate, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure. It is expected that there is still upward momentum in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a short - term rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Spread: The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 240 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 22 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 963 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 1203 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 contract spread of soda ash is 7 yuan, with a decrease of 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 contract spread of glass is - 55 yuan, with a decrease of 3 yuan. The basis of soda ash is 5 yuan, with a decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of glass is 68 yuan, with a decrease of 46 yuan [2]. - Position and Warehouse Receipt: The position of the soda ash main contract is 1443208 lots, with a decrease of 65754 lots; the position of the glass main contract is 1552205 lots, with an increase of 107933 lots. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 227449 lots, with a decrease of 52982 lots; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 220121 lots, with a decrease of 45869 lots. The soda ash exchange warehouse receipt is 3340 tons, with an increase of 1278 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipt is 0 tons, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - Soda Ash: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of East China light soda ash is 1340 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1285 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1056 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1070 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Operating Rate: The operating rate of soda ash plants is 78.57%, with a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.68%, with an increase of 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Production Capacity and Inventory: The in - production capacity of glass is 15.63 million tons/year, with no change; the number of in - production glass production lines is 225, with an increase of 2. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 162.43 million tons, with an increase of 2.2 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6766.2 million heavy - boxes, with a decrease of 10.7 million heavy - boxes [2]. 下游情况 - Real - Estate: The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 17835.84 million square meters, with an increase of 4839.38 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 15647.85 million square meters, with an increase of 2587.58 million square meters [2]. 行业消息 - Multiple industry news is reported, including the organization of the first - batch pilot work of new - type power system construction by the National Energy Administration, the research and deployment of promoting the development of the artificial - intelligence industry by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the preliminary estimate of 124 million new - energy passenger - vehicle wholesale sales in May by the Passenger Car Association with a year - on - year increase of 38%, etc. [2] 宏观情况 - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May is 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, and it has fallen below the critical point for the first time since last October [2].