Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-05 09:13Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates zinc prices to fluctuate within a range. It suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a focus on the price range of 2.18 - 2.25. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are rising, processing fees are increasing, and sulfuric acid prices are up, which restores smelter profits. However, there are supply disruptions due to a smelter's extended maintenance. The import window is closed, reducing imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it's the end of the peak season, with lower processing enterprise开工率 and potential export demand shrinkage. But lower zinc prices lead to more bargain - hunting and a decline in domestic social inventories, while overseas de - stocking continues. Technically, there are differences between long and short positions in open interest increment [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,340 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts is 160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,704 dollars/ton, down 7.5 dollars. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 240,856 lots, an increase of 2,590 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 10,173 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots. - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 2,004 tons, an increase of 628 tons; the SHFE inventory is 42,310 tons, a decrease of 1,763 tons; the LME inventory is 136,275 tons, a decrease of 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,800 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 29.28 dollars/ton, down 4.09 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production by ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 56,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2,320,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2,340,000 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing start area is 178,358,400 square meters, an increase of 48,393,800 square meters; the housing completion area is 156,478,500 square meters, an increase of 25,875,800 square meters. - The automobile production is 2,604,000 vehicles, a decrease of 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19,678,800 units, an increase of 3,476,400 units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 15.42%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 15.42%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 16.78%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates, and the US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in US economic activity, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressure. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The estimated cumulative wholesale from January to May was 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [3].