瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the lead price continues to be under pressure due to weakening demand. Although inventories have decreased, overseas inventories remain high, significantly pressuring the lead price. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure, with a rebound today but the rebound strength gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,695 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,986 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The 07 - 08 contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 88,284 lots, down 2,414 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 711 lots, down 162 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 41,698 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,500 tons, down 1,928 tons; the LME lead inventory is 283,150 tons, down 1,000 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,680 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 19.72 US dollars/ton, up 2.45 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,704 yuan, down 241 yuan; the domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory average price is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The production capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 51.28%, down 3.13 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 70.57%, down 3.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.39 tons, down 0.04 tons. The global lead ore output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 thousand pieces, down 425 thousand pieces. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,690.16 points, up 34.81 points. The monthly automobile production is 260.4 tons, down 44.06 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle production is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Tariff News: There are negotiations and responses regarding tariffs among the US, Canada, the EU, the UK, Vietnam, and Mexico. For example, the US - Canada agreement may be reached next week, and Mexico will announce measures against US steel and aluminum tariffs next week [2] - US Economic Data: In May, the ADP employment number increased by 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The US May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year [2] - Trump - related News: Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates, advocated canceling the debt ceiling, and had a 75 - minute call with Putin [2] 3.7 Macro - situation - The US Congressional Budget Office stated that the Trump tax bill will increase the US deficit by 2.4 trillion US dollars in 10 years. The primary lead smelters are affected by the unclear lead price, with a decline in the operating rate and output. The continuous decline of lead prices has increased the loss pressure of recycled lead, and the follow - up production increase of recycled lead is difficult [2]