Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On June 5, 2025, the urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, dropping nearly 3%. The market has a consistent expectation of weak demand, and the overall trend is bearish. Attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and the export end [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, with upstream factory prices slightly decreasing and new orders progressing slowly. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The daily production on the supply side remained unchanged, with multiple statistical calibers showing daily production above 200,000 tons, which limits the upside. On the demand side, it is currently the wheat harvest stage, with sporadic agricultural purchases and no concentrated replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased, and the summer fertilizer production is basically finished. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, and there may be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1768 yuan/ton, closed at 1722 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.88%. The position increased by 26,121 hands to 245,711 hands. Among the top twenty main position - holding seats, long positions increased by 12,125 hands and short positions increased by 17,530 hands. On June 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,357, a decrease of 52 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - Upstream factory prices are stable with a slight decline, new orders progress slowly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, and the transaction center has slightly moved down [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong region, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared to the previous trading day, reaching 118 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On June 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8] Downstream Data - From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from the previous week [12]
需求疲软，日内增仓下行
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-06-05 09:36