冠通期货资讯早间报-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important news, and financial market developments across various sectors including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also includes information on upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Categories Overnight Market Trends - Spot gold rebounded due to a weaker dollar, closing up 0.61% at $3373.72 per ounce, while spot silver closed down 0.03% at $34.492 per ounce [2] - International crude oil prices dropped as Saudi Arabia was reported to push for OPEC+ to increase production significantly. WTI crude closed down 1.05% at $62.17 per barrel, and Brent crude closed down 1.15% at $64.67 per barrel [2] - Domestic night - session futures contracts had mixed results. Some commodities like coking coal, coke, and LPG rose, while others like bottle chips, PTA, and caustic soda fell [3] - CBOT agricultural futures mostly rose, with soybeans up 0.36%, wheat up 1.49%, and corn down 0.06% [3] - London base metals had mixed closes, with LME tin up 1.41% and LME copper up 0.11% [4] Important News Macroeconomic News - A US - Canada trade agreement may be reached next week, perhaps before the G7 summit on June 15 [7] - The EU and the US had a constructive trade talk, and they are making progress on tariff negotiations [7] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the application method for hedging positions for some varieties and raised the combined limits for hedging and speculative positions for 14 varieties [7] - The US May ADP private employment report showed only 37,000 new jobs, far below the expected 114,000. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates [7] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated that economic activity has slightly declined since the last report, and price increases were at a moderate pace [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - Japan's commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories increased in the week ending May 31 [9] - The refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE dropped 13% to a five - month low in the week ending June 2 [11] - US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436 million barrels in the week ending May 30, while the strategic petroleum reserve increased by 509,000 barrels [11] - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ to increase oil production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September [11] Metal Futures - Peru's copper production is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million tons this year, and mining investment is expected to reach at least $4.8 billion [13] - A North China monomer enterprise started a 15 - day maintenance, which is expected to affect DMC production by about 4,000 tons [14] - An East China lead smelter has复产, but its production is unstable due to environmental inspections. A South China zinc smelter's equipment maintenance is expected to affect production by about 2,000 tons [14] - CZSPT released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate processing fees for the end of Q3 2025: $80 - $100 per dry ton [14] Black - series Futures - As of now, there is no official decision on Mongolia's coal mineral resource tax increase [17] - In late May, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [17] - The online auction of Mongolian coking coal on June 4 had all lots go unsold [17] - Some steel mills in Tangshan plan to cut coke prices on June 6 [17] - On June 4, the national building materials social inventory, factory inventory, and production all decreased compared to the previous week [18] - The UK Prime Minister aims to get the US to reduce steel tariffs on the UK to zero [19] Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's May 2025 palm oil inventory is expected to be 2.01 million tons, up 7.74% from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, up 3%; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, up 17.9% [21] - Chinese oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to reach about 9 million tons in June [23] - As of May 30, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased by 4.70% from the previous week [23] - ICAC's forecast for the 2025/2026 global cotton season remains stable, with production and consumption estimated at about 26 million tons and 25.7 million tons respectively, and trade volume increased to 9.7 million tons [23] - Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated at 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's at 19 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous forecast [23] - As of May 28, the national pig price and corn price both decreased, while the pig - to - corn ratio increased [24] - By the end of May, Guangxi's sugar sales and sales rate increased year - on - year [24] - Brazil's June soybean export is estimated at 12.55 million tons, lower than last year and May [24] - The expected US soybean export net sales for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 market years are in the ranges of 10 - 50 million tons and 0 - 10 million tons respectively [25] Financial Markets Stocks - A - share major indices rose, with the brokerage and consumer sectors performing strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.11% [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.6%, with nuclear power, pharmaceutical, and consumer stocks performing well [28] - In May 2025, A - share new accounts increased by 22.86% year - on - year but decreased by 19.16% month - on - month [28] - Brokers generally expect the A - share market to perform well in the second half of 2025 and are also optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market [29] - In May, over 60 A - share companies announced share repurchase plans, and nearly 150 companies implemented share repurchases [29] - Since April, the Hong Kong stock market has seen a wave of share repurchases, with the trend continuing in June [30] - This year, the total IPO fundraising in the Hong Kong stock market has exceeded HK$77.6 billion, a more than seven - fold increase from last year [30] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote the development of the AI industry and empower new - style industrialization [31] - The National Energy Administration launched the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new - style power system [31] - The National Railway Administration is seeking public opinions on the management regulations for the power source system transformation of old - style railway diesel locomotives [32] - Shenzhen released a plan to promote the high - quality development of service trade and digital trade [33] - In May, Shanghai's new - house supply and sales increased significantly [33] - In May, Shenzhen's second - hand housing transactions decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [34] - Shanghai issued a notice to promote the quality improvement and expansion of infrastructure REITs [34] - The "high - interest, high - rebate" car loan model has been stopped in some areas [34] - In May, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.24 million, a 38% increase year - on - year [35] Overseas News - The US and Russian presidents discussed the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue in a 75 - minute call [37] - Trump's tariff policy is expected to cut the US deficit by $2.8 trillion in 10 years but may lead to economic contraction and inflation [37] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has slightly declined, and businesses face cost - increasing pressure from tariffs [37] - US mortgage applications dropped to a five - week low, and the refinancing index also decreased [38] - The Canadian Prime Minister criticized the US steel and aluminum tariffs [38] - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% for the second time, being cautious about the economic outlook [39] - Japan's 2024 birth rate and total fertility rate reached record lows [40] - Australia's Q1 GDP growth was lower than expected [40] - The European Central Bank approved Bulgaria's application to adopt the euro in 2026 [41] International Stocks - US major stock indices had mixed closes, with the Dow down 0.22%, the S&P 500 up 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.32% [42] - Trump's "retaliatory tax" in the "Beautiful Big Bill" may weaken foreign investors' interest in US assets [42] - European stock markets rose for the second day, with the German DAX index hitting a record high [43] - Virgin Australia Airlines plans to raise A$685 million through an IPO [45] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.60% and COMEX silver up 0.06% [46] - International oil prices declined, with US crude down 1.06% and Brent crude down 1.1% [46] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME tin up 1.65%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, and LME copper up 0.16% [46] Bonds - Yields of major domestic inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined, and Treasury bond futures rose [47] - CITIC Securities and China Merchants Securities completed the first batch of bond refinancing book - building on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [49] - European bond yields had mixed movements, and the market expects the ECB to cut interest rates [49] - US bond yields all decreased due to factors such as increased risk - aversion and lower - than - expected PCE inflation [50] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 5 points at the 16:30 close and 207 points in night trading [51] - The US dollar index dropped 0.47% due to weak economic data and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, while most non - US currencies rose [51]