冠通研究：盘中承压运行，震荡区间内波动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is still oscillating within a wide - range, mainly affected by macro - environment changes. With terminal demand support and a tight supply expectation, the upward and downward amplitudes are limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of copper tariffs and wait for new drivers [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened low, rose, and was under pressure during the day. The weak US economic data pressured the US dollar. The Trump administration doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50% and launched a Section 232 investigation on copper imports, triggering strong expectations of copper tariff policies. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not decreased yet. The domestic PMI data is good, and the off - season demand is resilient, supporting the copper price. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, confirming the downstream export and demand. The demand has weakened marginally in the short - term and entered the off - season, but there are no obvious changes in the fundamentals [1] Periodic and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, went low, then high, fluctuated, and closed down, at 78270. The long positions of the top twenty decreased by 2631 to 126036 hands, and the short positions decreased by 1325 to 128264 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 90 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 5 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9619 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 54.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31700 tons, a decrease of 246 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52000 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 138000 tons, a slight decrease of 3350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 185700 short tons, an increase of 1498 short tons from the previous period [9]