HTSC·2025-06-05 09:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8]. Core Views - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented and stable operator in the copper mining sector, with recent discussions on key events such as the spin-off listing in Hong Kong, acquisition of藏格矿业, and the temporary shutdown of卡莫阿铜矿 [1]. - The spin-off of the subsidiary, 紫金黄金国际, aims to create an independent financing platform and enhance the valuation of its gold assets, although the completion of this spin-off remains uncertain [2]. - The acquisition of control over藏格矿业 has been completed, increasing the company's stake to 26.18%, which is expected to facilitate better management and integration of operations [3]. - The卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿 has experienced a temporary shutdown due to seismic activity, but the impact on production for 2025 is expected to be limited, with a projected copper output of 520,000 to 580,000 tons [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be RMB 44 billion, RMB 46.5 billion, and RMB 51.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - Revenue projections for the company are set at RMB 345.3 billion, RMB 368.3 billion, and RMB 390.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a growth rate of 13.73%, 6.67%, and 6.04% [7][18]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of financial ratios, including an expected EPS of RMB 1.52 for 2025 and a projected ROE of 26.1% [7][18]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price of RMB 22.49 and HKD 21.73 for the company's A/H shares, based on a cautious valuation approach [5][8]. - The report notes that the average PE ratios for comparable companies in the copper, gold, and zinc sectors are 11, 20, and 14 respectively for 2025 [5][13].