国投期货黑色金属日报-20250605

Report Investment Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: ★★★ for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon, and silicon manganese, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Core Views - The overall sentiment in the steel industry is pessimistic, with demand expectations being a major constraint. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with limited rebound space due to potential negative feedback in the mid - term and possible external trade frictions [3]. - The coke price is in a stalemate, and there may be a driving force for the price to continue rising in the short term [4]. - The coking coal market is in a situation where demand has reached a peak and supply has marginally decreased. The recent price increase is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [6]. - The silicon manganese market is weak, and short - term observation is recommended to see if the rebound is sustainable [7]. - The silicon iron market has a general demand, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Steel - Rebar: This week, the apparent demand decreased significantly, production declined, and the de - stocking pace slowed. The hot - rolled coil demand declined, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate. The iron - water production is gradually falling but remains at a relatively high level. The improvement in the infrastructure is limited, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has slowed, and the real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability. The increase in US tariffs impacts steel exports. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments have rebounded to a yearly high, and domestic arrivals have increased significantly. Port inventories may stabilize with the increase in arrivals. - Demand: Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, and iron - water production is declining from a high level. The decline rate may not be fast, but the downward trend is hard to change. The rebound space is limited, and the trend will be volatile [3]. Coke - The price is in a stalemate, and the third round of price cuts has started. The coking daily production is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke futures price is basically at par with the spot price, and the coking coal rebound provides some support. There may be a driving force for the price to continue rising in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The downstream demand has concerns about production cuts, and all links are reluctant to replenish inventory. The supply from production and imports remains in an oversupply situation. Some state - owned mines are reducing production, and some mines are shut down for rectification. The iron - water production is still high, maintaining a high - level rigid demand for furnace materials. The price increase is more likely a basis - repair rebound [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price is mainly driven by coking coal. Due to previous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase. The manganese ore inventory may increase significantly this week. The iron - water production is declining, and the silicon manganese supply is slightly increasing. The market is weak, and short - term observation is recommended [7]. Silicon Iron - The price is mainly driven by coking coal. The iron - water production is declining. The export demand remains at about 80,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The magnesium metal production has increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remains stable at a high level. The supply is decreasing, and the market transaction level is general. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8].