国投期货农产品日报-20250605

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybeans and related products is not explicitly stated, but for soybeans and soybean meal, it is short - term bearish; for soybean oil and palm oil, it is expected to be range - bound; for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is short - term bearish; for corn, it is expected to be weakly bearish in a volatile pattern; for live pigs, it is short - term bearish; for eggs, it is cautious and wait - and - see. The ratings for each product are as follows: - Soybeans: Not explicitly rated, but short - term bearish for soybeans and soybean meal [3] - Soybean oil and palm oil: Range - bound [4] - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: Short - term bearish [6] - Corn: Weakly bearish in a volatile pattern [7] - Live pigs: Short - term bearish [8] - Eggs: Cautious and wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and trade policies. Supply is generally abundant in the short - term, and demand is relatively weak. Weather will be a key factor affecting prices in the medium - term [2][3][4][6] - For different agricultural products, there are specific influencing factors. For example, the supply of imported soybeans is increasing, the demand for terminal feed is weak, and the trade between China and the US is uncertain; the relationship between China and Canada affects the rapeseed market; new wheat affects the corn market; the supply of live pigs is increasing, and the egg market is affected by previous chicken - chick replenishment and the off - season of demand [3][6][7][8][9] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are hovering at a low level. A bidding procurement event will be held tomorrow, and the actual transaction situation should be noted. In the short - term, the weather in Northeast China is suitable for the growth of soybeans. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant due to a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports. The price of US soybeans in the medium - term will be affected by weather and is expected to be volatile and bullish. Weather will also be the main factor driving the price of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Soybean meal futures continue to rise with reduced positions, while the domestic spot price continues to fall. The national mainstream price has dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, and the decline has been significant since late April. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive at ports in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. The supply is becoming more abundant but the increase rate is narrowing. Oil mills are operating at a high rate, and the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The terminal feed demand is weak. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and it is short - term bearish. Pay attention to the upward driving force brought by weather changes from June to August [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil are in a correction state, and the oil - meal ratio is correcting. The crushing profit of domestic soybeans in the near - month shipping schedule is poor. The short - term weather in the US is generally beneficial to soybean crops. In the medium - term, overseas soybeans will be driven by weather, and the domestic oil - meal futures will follow the US soybean market. The domestic soybean spot market will face the pressure of a large number of arrivals. The arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in China will also increase month - on - month. Overseas palm oil is in a production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. It is expected that soybean and palm oil will maintain a range - bound trend [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector has stabilized today, reversing the decline in the past two days. The communication between China and Canada during the Paris meeting is considered a possible warming of bilateral economic and trade relations, but whether there will be a turning point remains to be seen. If the Sino - Canadian trade relationship eases, the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will be more abundant, and rapeseed oil may face more pressure due to seasonal demand differences. The price of Canadian rapeseed is also affected by factors such as the bio - diesel policy of the US and Canada and the weather in the new - crop production area. It is expected that the domestic rapeseed futures price will be under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade expectations and overseas weather [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise with reduced positions. The spot price of corn in Northeast China remains stable, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has increased slightly. The price difference between new wheat and corn is gradually narrowing, and some feed enterprises in high - price corn areas are starting to replace corn with wheat. The overall demand is weak, the acceptance capacity of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and the operating rate is decreasing. With the listing of new wheat, the supply of corn in circulation will increase. It is recommended that investors be cautious when going long, and in a volatile pattern, the weak - demand situation is expected to be weakly bearish [7] Live Pigs - The live - pig futures are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the spot price is generally declining. The inventory of breeding sows in the sample continued to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the planned slaughter volume in June will increase by 1% month - on - month, with the average daily slaughter volume expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. Due to the continuous recovery of the number of newborn piglets, the supply of live pigs will generally increase in the future. Group pig enterprises need to reduce the weight of pigs for slaughter, which will further increase the supply pressure. The spot price may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the policy aims to stabilize pig prices, and the supply pressure in the long - term will be reduced through measures such as reducing the weight of pigs, reducing secondary fattening, and stabilizing the sow capacity. It is necessary to observe whether group enterprises will take actions to reduce the weight of pigs [8] Eggs - The egg futures are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the far - month contracts are showing a weak downward trend. The spot price of eggs is stable today. Although the current spot price of eggs has entered a low - valuation range, compared with the historical bottom of egg prices, there is still room for decline. The future pressure comes from the increasing production capacity due to the large - scale replenishment of chicken chicks and the off - season of demand during the plum - rain season. It is necessary to continue to observe the loss of egg - farmers and the process of culling old hens [9]