冠通每日交易策略-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal futures market will show a volatile trend as the upward drive has weakened after the previous rally [3]. - The overall trend of urea is bearish, and attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and exports [4][5]. - Copper prices are oscillating in a wide range. With terminal demand support and supply shortage expectations, the amplitude is limited, and the progress of copper tariffs should be monitored [9][10]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded but still face downward pressure due to factors such as supply pressure and trade war concerns [11][13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it gradually enters the peak season [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as high inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [15][16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term because of high inventory and slow new order follow - up [17]. - PVC is in a weak oscillation state as the demand has not improved substantially and the inventory pressure is large [18][19]. - The negative feedback of lithium carbonate continues. Although there may be a technical rebound in the short - term, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For coking coal, short - term rebound signs appear, but the long - term bearish trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to reduce short positions and wait and see [21][22]. - Rebar prices may decline if demand does not improve substantially, as the "supply - demand double - weak, insufficient cost support" pattern remains unchanged [23]. - Hot - rolled coil prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of trend - based decline after the sentiment fades [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on June 5, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal and Shanghai tin rose more than 1%, while alumina and urea fell nearly 3% [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:26, CSI 1000 2506, CSI 500 2506, and Shanghai gold 2508 had capital inflows, while crude oil 2507, lithium carbonate 2507, and apple 2510 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated, with a closing increase of 0.68%. The estimated soybean planting area in the US is 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year. The domestic soybean inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week and 20.45% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 44.03% week - on - week but decreased by 65.19% year - on - year [3]. 3.2.2 Urea - Urea prices opened low and dropped nearly 3% during the day. The supply side has a daily output of over 200,000 tons, and the demand side is in the wheat harvest stage with sporadic agricultural demand and a decline in the compound fertilizer factory's operating rate [4][5]. 3.2.3 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and was under pressure. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not weakened. The demand is supported by good domestic PMI data and strong off - season demand resilience. Copper prices are oscillating, and the progress of copper tariffs should be monitored [9][10]. 3.2.4 Crude Oil - In June, crude oil prices rebounded due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and supply disruptions. However, supply pressure remains high, and there is still downward pressure on prices [11][13]. 3.2.5 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7%, and the expected output in June increased. The downstream operating rate decreased, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14]. 3.2.6 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased to 50.29%. The enterprise operating rate increased to about 84%, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. 3.2.7 Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased to about 84%, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. The inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2.8 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased to 78.19%, and the downstream operating rate is low. The inventory is still high, and it is in a weak oscillation state [18][19]. 3.2.9 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are close to the bottom, but the supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is slow. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.2.10 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded due to news, but the supply is loose, and the long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to reduce short positions and wait and see [21][22]. 3.2.11 Rebar - The demand for rebar is in the off - season, and the supply pressure is not relieved. The cost support is insufficient, and there is a risk of price decline [23]. 3.2.12 Hot - rolled Coil - The supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory may start to accumulate. Prices lack upward momentum and are at risk of decline [25].