股指日报：调整尚未到位，建议继续观望-20250605

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, fundamental factors changed little. Against the backdrop of a protracted trade - war, the story of China's asset revaluation driven by fundamental inflection points is difficult to start. It is expected that the stock index will continue to oscillate in June, and a band - operation strategy is recommended [3] - The current stock index rally is mainly driven by retail sentiment and theme speculation, with domestic liquidity as the main source, making the A - share index relatively independent globally. The stock index is at a relatively high position within the oscillation range, and there is a need for further adjustment in technical terms. Considering the high probability of market sentiment cooling in the second quarter historically, it is advisable to wait for a pull - back [3] - For futures operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the lower support level at the position on April 9th. A band - operation strategy is recommended on a monthly basis. For options operations, the implied volatility of stock - index options is oscillating at a low level. The cost of buying options during the waiting period for a breakthrough is expected to be high, and the premium from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for a second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review changes to the FTSE China Index Series, which will take effect after the close on June 20th. Jiangsu Bank will be included in the FTSE China A50 Index, while Great Wall Motor will be removed. A - shares such as BeiGene, Yili Group, SAIC Motor, Seres, and Inovance Technology are included in the candidate list [4] - The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. After the release of the data, US President Trump called for Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates [4] Stock Index Disk Review - Market Performance: In the previous trading day, the A - shares rose collectively. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.13%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.43%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.78%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.88%. The leisure goods (+3.05%) and motorcycle (+2.56%) sectors led the gains, while the land transportation (-1.15%) and aviation (-1.08%) sectors lagged. More than 3,900 stocks rose, and 87 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a rebound in the profit - making effect [4] - Technical Analysis: After a previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap. The pressure at the daily and weekly levels has increased, while the monthly - line shows an oscillating trend [4] - Fund Flow: The trading volume of A - shares is oscillating at a low level, remaining around 1.1 - 1.2 trillion yuan. Market sentiment is cautious, and the sustainability of the market is poor [4]