国金期货沪铝日度报告-20250605

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily analysis of Shanghai Aluminum futures, covering the market situation on June 3, 2025 [1][3] - The research analyst is Cao Baiquan with consulting certificate number Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - On June 3, 2025, the price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed a downward trend, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day [3] - The position of al2507 was 191,144 lots, and the trading volume was 183,523 lots [3] Group 3: Macro - economic Factors - The Trump administration in the US announced to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which intensified global trade uncertainty and put short - term pressure on aluminum prices [3] - China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in May, and export indicators improved, partially offsetting overseas negatives and limiting the decline of aluminum prices [3] Group 4: Supply and Demand - China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached 4,319 million tons, approaching the 4,500 million - ton policy ceiling. There was a small - scale resumption of production during the wet season in the southwest, but overall flexibility was insufficient [3] - Orders from the State Grid drove the high - level operation rate of aluminum cables, supporting short - term rigid demand [3] - In the photovoltaic sector, profile orders declined significantly after the end of the rush - installation period. Automotive aluminum demand is expected to weaken in mid - to - late June, and aluminum use in the construction and real estate sector remained sluggish [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract 2507 showed a medium - sized negative candlestick during the day, breaking below the moving average system. The MACD indicator formed a death cross, the BOLL line fell below the middle track, and funds slightly reduced positions, indicating strong short - selling power during the day [3] Group 6: Market Outlook - In the short term, macro - level tariff and trade frictions have a negative impact on aluminum prices. If the off - season demand is too weak, prices may continue to decline [3] - Considering the support of low inventory and export rush on prices, aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]