海丰国际：关税缓和推升运价，区域市场显韧性-20250605

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.00 [8] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in cargo volume within the Asian region despite fluctuating tariff policies since April. The cargo volume is expected to remain stable and improve in April and May [1] - The easing of tariffs between China and the US in mid-May led to a surge in shipping rates for routes to the US, driven by concentrated shipments from cargo owners [3] - The company is optimistic about the long-term growth potential in cargo volume due to regional market dynamics and the reshaping of industries, which will enhance the circulation of raw materials, semi-finished, and finished products [1][5] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The Southeast Asian market has benefited from the easing of tariffs, with cargo volume and shipping rates showing a positive trend since April 10. The average container shipping price index for Southeast Asia increased by 6.9% in April and decreased by 6.1% in May, with year-on-year increases of 60.1% and 2.3% respectively [2] - The average container shipping price index for Asia increased by 2.3% month-on-month in April, with a year-on-year increase of 24.0% [2] Shipping Rates and Capacity - The tightening of capacity for small and medium-sized container ships has led to an increase in charter rates, with a 78.9% year-on-year rise in the average charter rate for 1,000 TEU container ships from January to April 2025 [4] - As of May, the global new container ship orders accounted for 29.4% of existing capacity, with large container ships (over 8,000 TEU) having a higher order ratio of 46.0% compared to smaller vessels [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of USD 1.09 billion, USD 905.56 million, and USD 1.10 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The revenue projections for the same years are USD 3.27 billion, USD 3.10 billion, and USD 3.42 billion [5][7] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is USD 0.40, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 39.78% [7][28]