山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term. The core logic includes the recurrence of Trump's trade war, the remaining risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes, the increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.23%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.01%. [1] - Core Logic: Short - term risks include the recurrence of Trump's trade war, economic recession, and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts. [1] - Attributes Analysis - Safe - haven: Trump's latest metal tariffs have come into effect, and EU and US representatives reported rapid progress in trade dialogues. [1] - Monetary: The Fed's Beige Book shows that tariffs increase price pressure and US economic activity declines. The US labor market slows down, and the number of layoffs reaches the largest increase in nine months. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuate weakly. [1] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - Price Anchor: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [5] - Capital and Inventory: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. The visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars. [8] - Economic Indicators: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.55%, the US dollar index is 98.82, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.57. [8] - Inflation Data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.80%, and the PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.15%. [9][10] - Other Data: Include data on the US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys, as well as central bank gold reserves, gold/foreign exchange reserves, and various risk and commodity - related indices. [10][11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the probability distribution of different federal funds target rate ranges in each meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 according to the CME FedWatch tool. [13]