Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. Market Data Commodities - Palm oil: Closed at 8060.00 with a weekly increase of 0.67% [2]. - Live pigs: Closed at 13605.00 with a weekly increase of 0.67% [2]. - Soybean meal: Closed at 2968.00 with a weekly increase of 0.54% [2]. - Corn: Closed at 2336.00 with a weekly increase of 0.39% [2]. - Copper: Closed at 77600.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.24% [2]. - PTA: Closed at 4700.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.34% [2]. - Aluminum: Closed at 20070.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.42% [2]. - Silver: Closed at 8218.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.54% [2]. - Methanol: Closed at 2208.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.63% [2]. - Gold: Closed at 771.80 with a weekly decrease of 1.06% [2]. - Crude oil: Closed at 447.90 with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Closed at 4349.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.23% [2]. - Glass: Closed at 982.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.80% [2]. - PVC: Closed at 4764.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.85% [2]. - Iron ore: Closed at 702.00 with a weekly decrease of 2.23% [2]. - Rebar: Closed at 2961.00 with a weekly decrease of 2.79% [2]. - Coke: Closed at 1308.00 with a weekly decrease of 5.42% [2]. A-shares - CSI 500: Closed at 5671.07 with a weekly increase of 0.32% [2]. - CSI 300: Closed at 3840.23 with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [2]. - SSE 50: Closed at 2678.70 with a weekly decrease of 1.22% [2]. Overseas Stocks - Nikkei 225: Closed at 37965.10 with a weekly increase of 2.17% [2]. - Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 19113.77 with a weekly increase of 2.01% [2]. - S&P 500: Closed at 5911.69 with a weekly increase of 1.88% [2]. - FTSE 100: Closed at 8772.38 with a weekly increase of 0.62% [2]. - CAC 40: Closed at 7751.89 with a weekly increase of 0.23% [2]. - Hang Seng Index: Closed at 23289.77 with a weekly decrease of 1.32% [2]. Bonds - 5-year Chinese Treasury bond: Closed at 1.58 with a weekly increase of 2.36% [2]. - 2-year Chinese Treasury bond: Closed at 1.50 with a weekly increase of 1.35% [2]. - 10-year Chinese Treasury bond: Closed at 1.70 with a weekly decrease of 1.33% [2]. Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index: Closed at 99.44 with a weekly increase of 0.32% [2]. - US Dollar central parity rate: Closed at 7.18 with a weekly decrease of 0.10% [2]. - EUR/USD: Closed at 1.13 with a weekly decrease of 0.14% [2]. Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 8 expect a sideways trend [3]. - Bullish logic: May PMI data shows significant improvement in corporate export orders; ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 index increased by 600 million this week; The Premier emphasized increasing policy support to expand consumption; Market sentiment for real estate and fiscal policies is expected to further recover [3]. - Bearish logic: May construction and service sector PMI is not high; A-share average daily trading volume decreased by 79.4 billion yuan week-on-week; Weak domestic demand affects profit expectations; Trump's false social media posts on China trade increase tariff uncertainty [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [3]. - Bullish logic: Setbacks in China-US economic and trade negotiations support the bond market; Manufacturing PMI remains below the boom-bust line; Weak stock market momentum benefits the bond market; Supply-demand disturbances in the bond market weaken after partial issuance [3]. - Bearish logic: Industrial enterprise profit growth rebounds; High-speed profit growth in new kinetic energy industries; Banks and insurance companies have limited capacity to absorb bond supply; Market concerns about rising certificate of deposit rates persist [3]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4]. - Bullish logic: Saudi Arabia's production increase falls short of expectations; Low oil prices hinder US shale oil supply growth; The Northern Hemisphere enters the peak season for refined oil; Chinese refineries plan to end maintenance in June [4]. - Bearish logic: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in July; A large amount of US Treasury bonds will mature in June; Trump reignites China-US trade disputes; Global economic weakness and trade frictions drag down oil demand [4]. Agricultural Products Sector Cotton - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4]. - Bullish logic: Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory is depleting faster; Import window is mostly closed; India's cotton production decreases year-on-year; US cotton sowing progress lags behind [4]. - Bearish logic: The domestic textile industry enters the off-season; Textile enterprises' operating rates decline; Finished product inventories increase; Post-Dragon Boat Festival temperature rise benefits new cotton growth; US cotton-growing areas have good weather [4]. Non-ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5]. - Bullish logic: Global copper mine supply is disrupted; LME copper inventory is falling; Domestic social inventory is low; Strong demand from power grid and new energy industries [5]. - Bearish logic: US steel tariff hikes raise stagflation expectations; Weak domestic commodity market sentiment; Widening scrap-copper price difference; Poor cable orders [5]. Chemical Sector Soda Ash - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5]. - Bullish logic: Maintenance peaks in July and August may ease supply pressure; Strong export performance; Stable light soda ash demand [5]. - Bearish logic: Weak glass demand affects the soda ash market; End of the PV installation rush; Low downstream purchasing enthusiasm; High production and inventory levels limit price increases [5]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [6]. - Bullish logic: US steel and aluminum tariff hikes increase uncertainty; Central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand support prices; SPDR Gold ETF holdings increase; Long-term logic of gold as a hedge against credit currency risk [6]. - Bearish logic: US economic data shows resilience; The Fed's May meeting was hawkish; US stocks showed no significant reaction to tariff hikes; Market sensitivity to Trump's policies may decline [6]. Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions, 0 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6]. - Bullish logic: Steel mills maintain profits; Port iron ore inventory decreases; Steel mills' imported ore inventory is low; Global iron ore shipments decline [6]. - Bearish logic: Trump plans to double steel and aluminum import tariffs; Mainstream ore shipments recover; Daily pig iron production decreases; Daily port throughput decreases; Weak domestic real estate market [6].
国投期货市场主流观点汇-20250605
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-05 11:26