国投期货能源日报-20250605

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Positive trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: Slightly bullish, but limited trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Asphalt: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase strategy of OPEC+ makes the supply - demand tightness from seasonality and geopolitical fluctuations unsustainable. Keep an eye on short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical disturbances are fully priced in [2] - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing remains weak, and the cracking and EFS of high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to weaken jointly. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil under the situation of weak supply and demand [3] - The supply increase of asphalt lacks resilience, the demand has a seasonal improvement, the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [4] - The downward space of LPG is limited after the supply pressure weakens, but the supply pressure still exists in summer, and it maintains a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC07 contract dropping 0.83% during the day [2] - Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC+ will continue to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and has lowered the official price premium of light crude oil sold to Asia in July [2] - The supply interruption caused by the wildfires in Canada has partially recovered, and the inventories of gasoline and refined oil in the EIA last week increased more than expected, indicating that demand cannot match the increase in refinery supply [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing is still weak. Although the power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa in summer provides some support, the expected power - generation demand for crude oil may exceed that for fuel oil this summer [3] - In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil flowing to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons, and the production increase of OPEC+ brings an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials [3] - The bunker volume of low - sulfur fuel oil in Fujairah dropped significantly last week, the peak season of overseas marine fuel demand is coming to an end, and the bonded inventory at domestic ports has decreased significantly under low supply [3] Asphalt - The discount quotation of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of -$6.5 per barrel, and the estimated discount quotation for July is -$6 per barrel [4] - The production of local refineries depends on crude oil quotas, and the start - up rate of major refineries is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining profit and export profit [4] - The demand has a seasonal improvement, but the real driving force still needs to be awaited [4] LPG - Domestic refineries have increased external sales and prices have generally declined. Although the supply in the Middle East is still abundant, the recent recovery of domestic chemical demand has brought about procurement demand [5] - The international market price is relatively stable. The monthly arrival volume and domestic production of LPG at the beginning of the month have both decreased, and the downward space is limited after the supply pressure weakens [5] - The supply pressure still exists in summer, and currently there is insufficient motivation for the improvement of chemical gross profit, maintaining a low - level shock [5]