国投期货化工日报-20250605

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and the market situation is evolving) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, meaning the short - term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products expected to be weak, some in a balanced state, and some showing potential investment opportunities. Each product's performance is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Categories Methanol - Intraday price oscillated with reduced positions. Coastal olefins increased load, raising methanol external procurement demand. Ports gradually accumulated inventory, and the basis remained strong. Inland device maintenance restarts increased, leading to higher load and weaker prices. Coal prices stopped falling, alleviating cost pressure. With the expectation of increased supply, the methanol market is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of Jiangsu Maritime's ship - age restrictions [2] Urea - Futures prices dropped sharply with increased positions, breaking through the low in late April. Agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest gap. With the end of summer high - nitrogen fertilizer production and clear export policies, market trading sentiment weakened, and producers' inventories continued to accumulate. Although exports are gradually liberalized, legal inspections are still restricted, and port inventories are basically the same as last week. A new Indian tender has little impact on the market. Device maintenance increased slightly, and the load decreased slightly but remained high. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the integer level [3] Polyolefins - Futures main contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, there are still many maintenance plans in June, providing some support on the supply side. However, it is the off - season for demand, and end - users mainly replenish inventory at low prices, providing limited support for spot prices. For polypropylene, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery is average. The market lacks clear signals, and market sentiment is cautious. The restart of previously maintained upstream devices and inventory accumulation during holidays have increased supply pressure, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify with the upcoming launch of new devices [4] Styrene - The main futures contract fluctuated narrowly, and the overall center of gravity moved down along the 5 - day moving average. There is an expectation of increased supply, and producers' intention to sell is strong, suppressing downstream replenishment transactions. Producers are gradually reducing prices, and downstream users are using existing raw materials and purchasing on an as - needed basis, with weak market sentiment [6] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices declined first and then oscillated back, remaining weak overall. PX and PTA operating rates continued to increase, while polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and terminal weaving load decreased. The industry chain shows a situation of increased upstream production and decreased downstream load, and PX and PTA are expected to be under continuous pressure. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and potential production cuts. Ethylene glycol prices rose rapidly due to the suspension of ethane shipments from the US but then oscillated back, and the monthly spread remained weak. With the commissioning of new plants and the restart of coal - chemical plants, port arrivals increased from a low level, and ports accumulated inventory. Coupled with possible weakening demand, market sentiment turned weak. Short - fiber prices were weakly volatile, with low processing margins. Terminal orders weakened, and supply - demand drivers were downward, mainly following raw material price fluctuations. Bottle - chip production is mainly for peak - season orders, and inventory is stable. As raw material prices weakened, the processing margin on the futures market rebounded from a low level, while the spot processing margin continued to weaken [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued its weak pattern. With less maintenance in June and the expected commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new plant, supply pressure increased. With the arrival of the Indian rainy season, exports are expected to weaken, and domestic demand is weak, so the PVC industry faces inventory accumulation pressure. The decline in calcium carbide prices has undermined cost support. In a weak supply - demand situation, futures prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda is operating weakly. The increase in liquid chlorine prices has improved the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.5%. Liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased but still faces pressure. The enthusiasm of non - aluminum downstream users and traders to take delivery is average. Downstream rigid demand has not improved significantly. With high - profit margins, supply is operating at a high level, and futures prices are under pressure at high levels [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass continued the pattern of inventory accumulation and price reduction, and futures prices were weak. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the enthusiasm of traders to purchase decreased, and the industry continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, inventory is concentrated in upstream and mid - stream, with high pressure. With the upcoming rainy season, the industry faces shipment pressure. Coal production lines still have profits, with two new production lines and three ignition lines recently, slightly increasing capacity. Processing orders have not improved significantly month - on - month and are still weak year - on - year, and downstream payment collection is poor. With high inventory pressure, the driving force is still weak. At a low valuation, attention should be paid to cost - side changes, and operations should be cautious. Soda ash supply has rebounded to 700,000 tons, with high inventory pressure, and futures prices continued the weak pattern. There are few maintenance plans in June. After upstream price concessions, the industry still has profits, and supply will remain at a high level. Downstream users mainly make rigid purchases and have a weak willingness to replenish inventory. There is a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry, and the subsequent ignition speed will slow down or even cold - repair may occur. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations, and in the long term, supply pressure remains, so a high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [9]