油脂震荡、玉米企稳

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils are volatile, with palm oil and soybean oil facing downward pressure due to supply - related factors, while corn has stabilized and rebounded. Sugar continues to be weak, and various other agricultural products such as livestock, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Market situation: Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, with India's May imports surging 87% to 600,000 tons, but the producing area is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market expects May's Malaysian palm oil inventory to reach 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% month - on - month increase. In the domestic market, inventory increased to 364,000 tons as of May 30, a 7.47% month - on - month increase, and demand is weak [2]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term short, with support at 8048 and resistance at 8192 for the 2509 contract [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: Domestic imported soybeans arrive in large quantities, oil mill operating rates increase, and soybean meal supply rises. As of the end of May, inventory increased to 300,000 tons, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the price shows resilience [3]. - Strategy: Close short positions, conduct short - term trading, with support at 2942 and resistance at 2981 for the 2509 contract [3]. (3) Soybean Oil - Market situation: A large number of imported soybeans arrive in the country, oil mill crushing volume is high, and soybean oil inventory increases significantly, reaching 754,900 tons as of May 30, a 5.77% month - on - month increase. Post - Dragon Boat Festival demand is insufficient, and the price faces downward pressure [6]. - Strategy: Light - position short at high prices, with support at 7612 and resistance at 7682 for the 2509 contract [6]. (4) Sugar - Market situation: Northern hemisphere sugar producers like India and Thailand have good production prospects, and Brazil's dry weather is favorable for sugarcane crushing. International raw sugar prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, expected imports will increase due to open import profit windows and license issuance, and the price is under pressure [7][9]. - Strategy: Light - position short at high prices, with support at 5712 and resistance at 5750 for the 2509 contract [9]. (5) Corn - Market situation: New wheat is on the market, and the substitution supply increases, but the remaining grain in the producing areas is exhausted, supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline, supporting the price [11]. - Strategy: Light - position long, with support at 2320 and resistance at 2340 for the 2507 contract [11]. (6) Live Pigs - Market situation: The pig inventory of breeding farms is at a high level, the daily slaughter pressure increases, and the downstream demand is weak, in the seasonal off - season, resulting in downward pressure on the price [12]. - Strategy: Light - position short, with support at 13380 and resistance at 13545 for the 2509 contract [12]. (7) Cotton - Market situation: The textile industry is in the consumption off - season, orders are scarce, inventory removal is slow, and demand for cotton raw materials is weak [15]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term short, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13305 for the 2509 contract [15]. (8) Eggs - Market situation: The laying - hen inventory is high, and the production capacity reduction is slow. As of the end of May, the inventory is about 1.334 billion. After the festival, consumption declines, and the storage difficulty increases during the plum - rain and high - temperature season, leading to downward pressure on the price [16][18]. - Strategy: Light - position short, with support at 2857 and resistance at 2901 for the 2507 contract [18]. (9) Apples - Market situation: The remaining apple inventory in the producing areas is low, and the new - season apple bagging work is advancing, with some areas having a production - reduction expectation, supporting the price [19]. - Strategy: Light - position long at low prices, with support at 7680 and resistance at 7760 for the 2510 contract [22]. (10) Peanuts - Market situation: After the previous price increase, the trading atmosphere is dull, the upper - hand volume at the grass - roots level is limited, and the oil mill purchases are coming to an end. The price is in a volatile consolidation [23]. - Strategy: Short - term trading, if the 10 - day moving average is broken again, light - position short, with support at 8340 and resistance at 8426 for the 2510 contract [23].