Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-05 14:48Core Summary - In 2025, the securities industry is expected to experience a dual increase in profitability and valuation due to favorable policies and liquidity support, with a focus on the improvement of brokerage services, proprietary asset allocation, and international business as sources of performance differentiation [4][5] Group 1: Policy and Liquidity Support - The major highlight for the securities sector in 2025 is the favorable policies and liquidity support, particularly the implementation of the "Plan to Promote Long-term Funds into the Market," which sets clear investment scale and ratio requirements for public funds, insurance funds, and pension funds [4][12] - The People's Bank of China implemented a "combination punch" of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in May 2025, which is expected to drive residents' deposits and bank wealth management products towards equity assets [4][34] Group 2: Wealth Management - The trend of residents moving their deposits to equity assets is accelerating, supported by the new public fund regulations and the full rollout of the personal pension system, which is expected to bring incremental investments to public funds [4][32] - The public fund fee structure is being reformed to focus on investor returns, aiming to enhance the investment value and attract more long-term capital into the market [4][35] Group 3: Proprietary Business - The proprietary investment performance is expected to be differentiated due to regulatory restrictions on derivatives and limited space for bond market allocation, with equity allocation becoming the core of proprietary performance [4][21] - The securities firms are encouraged to increase their allocation to high-quality equity assets, while the fixed income segment is expected to shift from a "lying win" strategy to a more diversified "fixed income+" investment approach [4][5] Group 4: International Business - The internationalization of securities firms is seen as an inevitable trend, with large firms accelerating their global market penetration, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, driven by the demand for cross-border financing and mergers [4][5] - The regulatory environment is being optimized to create a market-oriented, legal, and international business environment, facilitating the expansion of international business for securities firms [4][5] Group 5: Investment Analysis - The overall outlook for the securities sector is positive, with expectations of profitability and valuation increases, driven by differentiated competition in proprietary investment, wealth management, and international expansion [4][5] - Recommended investment targets include leading firms with strong comprehensive capabilities, firms with significant earnings elasticity, and those with robust international business competitiveness [4][5]