约束下的产业政策

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under study Core Insights - The export promotion policy in Pakistan, specifically the Duty Drawback of Taxes (DDT) scheme, had a small overall impact on textile exports but caused significant reallocation among products, favoring traditional garments eligible for higher rebate rates [4][10][11] - For every US$1 spent on the DDT scheme, only US$1.1 in additional exports was generated, indicating limited effectiveness [10][41] - The scheme led to strategic misreporting at the border, although this had a minor overall impact on recorded exports [11][62] Summary by Sections Introduction - The paper discusses the shift in industrial policy from protectionist to export-oriented strategies, highlighting the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of export promotion policies [8][9] Export Promotion and Performance - The DDT scheme is a key export promotion policy for Pakistan's textile sector, which constitutes 55% of total exports. The budget for the scheme increased significantly post-2014, reaching about 1% of the total federal budget during 2017-2020 [9][20][25] Data and Methodology - The study employs product-level data and synthetic control methods to analyze the impact of the DDT scheme, comparing eligible and non-eligible products [9][27][35] Results - The DDT scheme resulted in a 1.9% average annual increase in textile exports from 2015 to 2019, primarily driven by high-rate garment exports, while lower-rate and non-eligible products experienced a decline [41][44] - The overall effect of the scheme was small, with significant negative impacts on lower-rate products counterbalancing the positive effects on higher-rate products [41][44] Mechanisms and Additional Results - The analysis indicates that shifts in the composition of exporters, with new entrants less likely to focus on lower-rate products, contributed to the observed export changes [52][54] - Capacity constraints faced by firms limited their ability to expand exports of high-rate products without reducing lower-rate product exports [55][61] - The report suggests that larger exporters benefited more from the DDT scheme, while smaller exporters faced challenges due to increased competition [61]