Guoxin Securities·2025-06-06 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and gas industry [6][7]. Core Views - OPEC+ has announced a continuation of production increases of 411,000 barrels per day for July, significantly impacting oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies [1][2]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. May Oil Price Review - In May 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $64.0 per barrel, down by $2.5 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $61.3 per barrel, down by $1.5 [1][14]. - The fluctuations in oil prices were influenced by the "reciprocal tariff" policy, OPEC+ production announcements, and geopolitical events in the Middle East [1][14]. 2. Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has decided to extend production increases of 411,000 barrels per day, which is three times the original increase plan [2][16]. - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 730,000 to 1,300,000 barrels per day in 2025, and 760,000 to 1,280,000 barrels per day in 2026 [3][17]. 3. Key Data Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $60.79 per barrel, a 4.4% increase from the previous month, while Brent settled at $63.90 per barrel, a 1.2% increase [36]. - The average production of U.S. crude oil in May 2025 was 13.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month [44]. - The report highlights that the capital expenditure willingness in overseas markets is low, indicating a lack of conditions for significant production increases [44][29]. 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends key stocks including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy [4].