Weichai Power(000338) Shanghai Securities·2025-06-06 00:30Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the heavy truck industry due to the scrapping and replacement policy, which is projected to drive heavy truck sales to exceed 1 million units in 2025 [6][33] - The company’s high-margin products are gaining traction, with significant growth anticipated in the large-bore engine and data center segments, leading to improved profitability [8][29] - The company is accelerating its transformation in six key areas, including new energy, digitalization, and export markets, aiming for substantial revenue growth in the coming years [8][45] Summary by Sections AIDC Engine Outlook - The AIDC engine market is characterized by high barriers to entry, with domestic manufacturers like Weichai making significant breakthroughs [16] - The demand for AIDC engines is rapidly increasing, but supply is constrained due to limited production capacity [25][24] - The company’s large-bore engine business is entering a high-growth phase, with sales of over 8,100 units expected in 2024, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [29] Heavy Truck Industry Recovery - The inclusion of natural gas and National IV trucks in the scrapping subsidy program is expected to stimulate heavy truck sales significantly [33] - The company holds a 59.6% market share in natural gas heavy truck engines, positioning it well for growth as the scrapping policy takes effect [36] - The penetration rate of clean energy vehicles is projected to increase, leading to a more balanced market among diesel, natural gas, and new energy vehicles [42] Annual Performance Highlights - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 215.69 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.40 billion yuan, marking a 26.51% increase year-on-year [49] - The engine segment's profit margin improved by 4.80 percentage points, driven by higher sales of high-value products [55] - The company’s subsidiaries, including Shaanxi Heavy Truck and KION, reported significant profit increases, contributing positively to overall performance [57] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 12.68 billion, 14.64 billion, and 16.51 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with respective growth rates of 11.21%, 15.47%, and 12.75% [8][11] - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 10.38X in 2025 to 7.98X in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation for investors [8][11]