国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Short - term cost provides support, but weak expectations exert downward pressure [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between negative feedback and production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of Sino - US tariff repair [2][11]. - Industrial Silicon: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to upward risks [2][16]. - Polysilicon: The weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged [2][16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,570 yuan, down 1,020 yuan; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,690 yuan, down 30 yuan. Other data such as trading volume, price spreads, and import profits also showed corresponding changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia have entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance and affect production [5][6][8][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 60,100 yuan, down 980 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and raw - material prices [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Chile's lithium carbonate export volume changed, with a decrease in exports to China and the US and an increase to South Korea; the industry inventory increased [11][12][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2507 contract was 7,135 yuan, down 145 yuan; the closing price of the PS2507 contract was 34,540 yuan, down 515 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory [16]. - Macro and Industry News: A Canadian solar - component assembly plant in the US has been put into production [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [18].