服务PMI预警滞涨风险

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, dropping from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below the market expectation of 52[2] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 to 48.5, also below the market expectation of 49.5[2] - The new orders index for services plummeted from 52.3 to 46.4, indicating a significant weakening in demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The price index for services rose from 65.1 to 68.7, marking the highest expansion rate since late 2022[2] - The manufacturing price index remained high at 69.4, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the US[2] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rates for 2023 are expected to decline from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, 1.3% in Q3, and 1% in Q4[2] - The PCE inflation is forecasted to rise from 2.5% in Q1 to 3% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4[2] Policy Environment - The policy environment is expected to remain unfriendly in the next three months, with the White House likely to continue pressuring trading partners and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts[2] - Improvement in the policy environment is anticipated in Q4, with potential agreements with major trading partners and a return to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2]