镍、不锈钢：基本面无明显改善

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel have no obvious improvement. The Shanghai nickel price has been oscillating at the bottom, with short - term support from Philippine nickel mines, a slight decline in the Indonesian domestic trade benchmark price, and stable premiums in June. The nickel - iron price has stabilized, but the procurement intensity of upstream and downstream is weak due to profit pressure. Some steel mills in China and Indonesia have announced production cuts, the demand in the stainless - steel market is sluggish during the off - season, and inventory has further accumulated. The nickel salt in the new - energy chain has declined due to the impact of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and fundamental drivers [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel - ore exports in June 2025, production cuts by some stainless - steel plants, and stable cost support from nickel mines and nickel - iron. Negative factors include high stainless - steel inventory, the traditional off - season for stainless - steel demand, and anti - dumping investigations launched by multiple stainless - steel trading countries [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Management Strategy - Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - Shanghai Nickel Management Strategy: For inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the decline in spot prices, with a hedging ratio of 60% for futures and 50% for selling call options. For procurement management, when the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about rising raw - material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, and the hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan. Other options strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]. 2. Market Data - Nickel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,570 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as Shanghai nickel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three have increased by 1.11%, 1.05%, and 1.05% respectively. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,330 US dollars/ton, down 1.04%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.22%. The basis of the main contract increased by 86.2% [5]. - Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of stainless - steel continuous - one and continuous - two increased by 0.71% and 0.63% respectively, while the continuous - three decreased by 0.27%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 1.02%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 12.16% [6]. 3. Industry Inventory - Nickel Industry Inventory: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 41,553 tons, a decrease of 836 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 967.5 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons; the nickel - pig - iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [7].