煤焦早报：夜盘焦煤减仓上行，关注持仓后续变化-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Sideways to slightly bearish [1] - Coke: Sideways [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply is shrinking due to environmental inspections and safety production, but the import pressure from Mongolia remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease [4]. - For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4]. - The recent rise in coking coal is mainly driven by supply - side news and should be regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot is weak, while futures are rebounding. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 893 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is at 757 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan), the basis is 156 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [1]. - Mine开工率 continues to decline, and coking enterprise开工率 remains flat. The开工 rate of 523 mines is 85.49% (down 0.81), the开工 rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.55% (down 0.81), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1) [2]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 473.03 million tons (up 25.5 million tons), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons (up 7.33 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons (down 11.96 million tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 716.66 million tons (down 21.3 million tons), and the port inventory is 303.09 million tons (up 1.53 million tons) [2]. Strategy Suggestions - The supply of coking coal is shrinking, but the import pressure remains. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will ease. The recent rise is a rebound, not a reversal. Short - term advice is to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]. Coke Market Conditions - The third - round spot price cut has started, and futures are rebounding. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (unchanged), and some steel mills have started the third - round price cut. The active contract is at 1342 yuan/ton (down 25.5 yuan), the basis is 98.86 yuan/ton (up 25.5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16.5 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan) [3]. - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.08% (down 0.1), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.69% (down 0.63), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons) [3]. - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 78.33 million tons (up 5.23 million tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 654.93 million tons (down 5.66 million tons), and the port inventory is 217.18 million tons (down 5.91 million tons) [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. With weakening supply - demand, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June if the cost side does not stabilize [4].