对二甲苯：PXN或继续走强，PTA：贸易环境预期改善，反套离场

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment tendencies. The trend intensities range from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -1 indicating bearish, 0 indicating neutral, and 1 indicating bullish. Here are the trend intensities for each commodity: - PX: 1 [9] - PTA: 1 [9] - MEG: 0 [9] - Rubber: 1 [12] - Synthetic Rubber: 1 [19] - Asphalt: 0 [28] - LLDPE: 0 [38] - PP: 0 [42] - Caustic Soda: -1 [47] - Pulp: 0 [51] - Glass: 0 [56] - Methanol: 1 [62] - Urea: 0 [66] - Styrene: 0 [67] - Soda Ash: 0 [73] - LPG: 0 [80] - PVC: 0 [90] - Fuel Oil: 0 [91] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: 0 [91] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Not specified 2. Report's Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trend forecasts for various energy and chemical commodities. The core viewpoints include: - Some commodities are expected to benefit from improved macro - economic sentiment and trade environment, such as PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, and methanol. - Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances and cost - related pressures, such as LLDPE, PVC, and urea. - Some commodities are in a state of shock or adjustment, such as asphalt, pulp, glass, and styrene. 3. Summary by Commodity Aromatics and Polyester Raw Materials - PX: In a stagflation environment in the US, demand expectations improve, and the PXN may continue to strengthen. It is recommended to hold long PXN, long PX, and short PTA positions [4][9]. - PTA: With the restart of some devices and improved demand expectations, the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be exited [4][9]. - MEG: Despite potential restrictions on ethane exports, the impact on supply is limited under a mild trade environment. Demand expectations improve, and the reverse spread should be exited [4][9]. Rubber - Natural Rubber: It is expected to be oscillating and slightly strengthening. The trend intensity is 1. The orders of semi - steel and full - steel tire enterprises show differentiation, and the inventory situation also varies [10][12][14]. - Synthetic Rubber: Due to improved macro - sentiment, it is expected to rebound from a low valuation in the short term. The trend intensity is 1 [17][19]. Asphalt - It will continue to oscillate. The trend intensity is 0. The production and inventory of asphalt have changed slightly, and the BU - SC spread is oscillating at a high level after expansion [20][21][35]. Polyolefins - LLDPE: Do not chase short positions in the short term, but there is still pressure in the later period. The trend intensity is 0. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season [36][37]. - PP: The price has a slight decline, and the trading volume is average. The trend intensity is 0. The market price is partially warmer, and the downstream procurement is cautious [41][42]. Caustic Soda - It has a strong current situation but weak expectations. Attention should be paid to cost changes. The trend intensity is - 1. The short - term support comes from maintenance and alumina replenishment, but there are still supply and demand pressures in the medium term [44][46]. Pulp - It will operate in an oscillating manner. The trend intensity is 0. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures decline, low - price rumors, and off - season demand [50][52]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0. The market supply and demand are weak, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state [55][56]. Methanol - Due to improved macro - sentiment, it is expected to rebound from a low level in the short term. The trend intensity is 1. The inland and coastal markets show different trends, and the port inventory has accumulated [58][61]. Urea - In the short term, macro - benefits are released, but the medium - term pressure is still relatively large. The trend intensity is 0. The enterprise inventory is increasing, and the futures may rebound in the short term but face pressure in the medium term [63][64][66]. Styrene - It will be oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0. The downstream replenishment forms a positive feedback in the off - season, but the high profit stimulates high supply, and the port inventory is accumulating [67][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The trend intensity is 0. The supply is slightly reduced, and the downstream demand is weak [70][72]. LPG - With improved macro - expectations, the bottom support is strengthening. The trend intensity is 0. The futures prices of different contracts show different trends, and there are many PDH device maintenance plans [75][81]. PVC - Do not chase short positions in the short term, but the trend still has pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export sustainability is to be observed [87][88]. Fuel Oil - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It oscillates narrowly during the day and will enter an adjustment period in the short term. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is slightly strengthening in the short term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity of both is 0 [91]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It oscillates at a high level, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be held. The European and US - West routes show different trends in freight rates [93][94].