市场重新聚焦供应前景改善，白糖短线承压

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise incentives, but early drought in Guangxi has limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, with a stable supply - demand gap and an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Xinjiang's stable cotton target price subsidy policy has maintained farmers' planting enthusiasm, increasing the planting area slightly, while the area in inland regions has decreased. With good climate conditions during sowing and emergence, the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. The total production is expected to reach 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase. Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, but there is still uncertainty. The expected consumption for the new year is 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last year, and the import volume is adjusted down to 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - External Quotes: On June 4 - 5, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.78% from $16.75 to $16.62, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.42% from $65.05 to $65.32 [3]. - Spot Prices: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 6,090 and 5,910 respectively; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.01% from 3,281 to 3,280, and the cotton price in Xinjiang remained at 14,450 [3]. - Spreads: The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 increased by 11.11%, 6.88%, and 5.65% respectively; the spread of CF01 - 05 decreased by 33.33%, and the spread of CF05 - 09 increased by 12.50%, while the spread of CF09 - 01 remained unchanged [3]. - Basis: The basis of sugar 01, 05, and 09 increased by 8.74%, 9.01%, and 11.11% respectively; the basis of cotton 01, 05, and 09 increased by 1.55%, 1.13%, and 1.49% respectively [3]. 2. Import and Profit Data - Import Prices: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.25 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. - Profit Space: The sugar import profit remained at 1,609 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. 3. Option and Volatility Data - Options: For options SR509C5700 and SR509P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0781 and 0.0785 respectively, with SR509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 9.04; for options CF509C13200 and CF509P13200, the implied volatility is 0.0964 and 0.0943 respectively, with CF509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 12.42 [3]. 4. Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 4 - 5, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.34% from 30,300 to 29,893, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% from 10,977 to 10,939 [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a large - scale domestic futures company, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - power member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1][9].