工业硅、多晶硅日评：市场信心较差工业硅价格持续下探，多晶硅低位整理-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Both futures and spot prices are declining in tandem. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and it is difficult to find the bottom of silicon prices. However, the current position is at an absolute low. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to gradually stop profiting on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, considering the weak fundamentals and the difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem in the short - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 0.56% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 1.99% to 7,135 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply Side: Some silicon enterprises in the north have cut production due to cost inversion. Although the southwest production area is approaching the wet - season, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate has decreased [1]. - Demand Side: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price is falling. The start - up rate of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has a low willingness to stock up at low prices [1]. - Investment Strategy: It is recommended to gradually stop profiting on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 30 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.47% to 34,540 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will be maintained within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand Side: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]. - Investment Strategy: Short on rebounds and continuously monitor the supply - side changes [1]. Other Information - Organic Silicon: Due to the significant decline in the cost of 421 silicon, the profit of domestic organic silicon monomer enterprises has started to recover, with the average industry profit reaching about 600 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: On June 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to last week [1].