长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - and medium - term, with an expected operating range of 12,000 - 13,400 yuan, and a long - term outlook with high uncertainty depending on the attitude towards reciprocal tariffs [1]. - PTA is likely to operate under pressure in the short term due to weakening supply - demand expectations [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol will trade in a range, supported by supply - demand fundamentals but facing upward pressure [3]. - Short - fiber has a bottom support, with high - level oscillation expected next week and limited downward space [4]. - Sugar will experience weak oscillations, affected by international and domestic factors with a complex situation [4][5]. - Apples will trade at a high level, with the price expected to remain in a high - level range due to low inventory [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Macro factors include the approaching June US Treasury bond maturity, an increase in net short positions in the US CFTC cotton positions, and uncertainty about reciprocal tariffs. The domestic supply of cotton is tight in the short - term, with commercial inventory at the end of August expected to be 155 million tons this year, lower than previous years. New - season global cotton production is likely to increase, with Xinjiang expected to produce 7.2 - 7.5 million tons and Brazil 3.95 million tons. In the short - and medium - term, the market is cautious during the reciprocal tariff negotiation period in June and July, and the price is expected to decline. In the long - term, the trend depends on reciprocal tariffs [1]. PTA - Crude oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and wildfires in Canada. As of the 20th, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,905 yuan/ton. The domestic PTA device operating rate increased by 3.49% to 80.13%, and the polyester industry's capacity utilization rate was 89.31%, with a slowdown in inventory reduction. The polyester sales rate decreased to 34.1%. With the digestion of macro - level positives, high spot basis, and the restart of previously shut - down production enterprises, PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - International oil prices have declined, reducing the cost of ethylene glycol. On June 3, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,478 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in the South China market, it was 4,530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; and the US dollar closing price was 520 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. Domestic production has recovered, imports are low, and demand has a high operating rate, but downstream polyester inventory building is cautious, limiting upward price movement [3]. Short - fiber - The tight supply of raw materials PX - PTA provides strong cost support. Short - fiber will follow cost increases passively next week, but downstream transmission is poor, and processing fees may continue to decline. However, some enterprises have started to cut production, limiting the downward space [4]. Sugar - Internationally, although the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil have decreased year - on - year at the beginning of the new crushing season, there is still an expectation of increased production. Domestically, factors are mixed. The sales speed this season is fast, and summer consumption is driving demand, with reduced short - term import pressure. However, continuous rainfall in Guangxi has ended the previous drought speculation, and there is still long - term import pressure, so the sugar price is in a weak oscillation [4][5]. Apple - Apple inventory trading is mainly on - demand, with a stable market. In the western region, trading is stable, and in Shandong, low - price goods are in relatively high demand. With the arrival of seasonal fruits, apple sales are average. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain in a high - level range [5]. Macro and Other Information - China - US leaders had a phone call, and the US initial jobless claims reached the highest level since October last year, indicating a cooling labor market. On June 5, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,543 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day. New - season Australian cotton production is expected to be 970,000 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease, but export revenue may increase by 2% to 3.5 billion US dollars. In April 2025, Turkey's clothing export value was 1.2 billion US dollars, flat year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month [8][9]. - As of May 22, 2025, the average PTA processing margin was 365.57 yuan/ton, down 8.65% month - on - month and 6.82% year - on - year. The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.64%, up 0.42% month - on - month and 4.10% year - on - year [9]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 52.63%, down 2.74% month - on - month. The weekly output was 316,400 tons, down 4.96% from the previous week [13]. - As of the end of May, China's monthly short - fiber output was 721,500 tons, up 6.13% month - on - month. The average capacity utilization rate was 86.14%, up 2.04 percentage points month - on - month [11]. - As of June 2, 2025, Russia's beet planting area was 1.17428 million hectares, an increase of 54,800 hectares year - on - year. India's 2024/25 sugar ending inventory is expected to be 4.865 million metric tons, and the 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach 35 million metric tons. Yunnan's 2024/2025 sugar production season ended on May 22, with 2.4188 million tons of sugar produced, up from the previous season [12][14]. - As of June 4, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 1.382 million tons, down 137,700 tons from the previous week [15].