能源化工日报-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is facing weak cost, demand, high production, and inventory, with a low valuation and weak driving force, expected to oscillate weakly. The caustic soda market shows a strong current situation but weak expectations, with short - term tight supply in some areas and a likely peak in spot prices, and a mid - term weakening trend. The styrene market has a high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply and demand, suggesting short - selling at high prices. The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The urea market has an oversupply situation, and it's not advisable to bottom - fish during a unilateral decline. The methanol market is expected to oscillate, with relatively loose supply and increased downstream olefin开工率. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The soda ash market has limited upward space for the futures price despite short - term sentiment improvement [2][3][5]. Summary by Product PVC - Price: On June 5, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4747 yuan/ton (- 87), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - Fundamentals: Long - term demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, exports are restricted, and supply pressure is high in the third quarter. Inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is mainly driven by the macro - environment [2]. - Outlook: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 4800 yuan/ton line. Stimulus policies may support the price, while trade frictions may pressure it [2]. Caustic Soda - Price: On June 5, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton (- 35), with different market prices in Shandong [3]. - Supply and Demand: Supply has high - level production and new capacity expectations, and there will be a production decline during mid - June due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry has uncertain复产 expectations, and non - aluminum demand is affected by tariffs [3]. - Outlook: Short - term local supply may be tight, but the spot price is likely to peak. In the mid - term, it will oscillate weakly, and short - selling is recommended for the 09 contract, with a focus on the 2400 yuan/ton line [3]. Styrene - Price: On June 5, the styrene main contract was 7085 (- 5) yuan/ton, with different raw material prices [5]. - Supply and Demand: Crude oil has short - term support and mid - term loose supply expectations. Pure benzene supply is increasing, and styrene supply is expected to recover in June. Downstream demand is weak [5]. - Outlook: High valuation and loose supply - demand, recommend short - selling at high prices, with a focus on the 7200 yuan/ton line [5]. Rubber - Price and Inventory: On June 5, the rubber market oscillated slightly. As of June 1, inventory in Qingdao decreased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization declined [6]. - Outlook: Expected to oscillate widely in the short term, depending on macro - news and sentiment [6]. Urea - Price and Supply - Demand: The urea 09 contract fell 2.88% to 1722 yuan/ton, with a strong basis. Supply is high, and demand from agriculture and some industries is limited [7]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It's not advisable to bottom - fish during a decline, and the 09 contract is expected to operate between 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton [7]. Methanol - Price and Supply - Demand: The methanol 09 contract rose 0.49% to 2259 yuan/ton. Supply is relatively loose, and the downstream olefin开工率 increased, while traditional demand is in the off - season [8]. - Outlook: Expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract operating between 2150 - 2300 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefin - Price and Supply - Demand: On June 5, the L and PP main contracts had different price changes. Supply is expected to increase in the future, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with a certain inventory reduction trend [9][10]. - Outlook: Expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the L2509 operating between 6950 - 7350 yuan/ton and the PP2509 between 6850 - 7200 yuan/ton [10]. Soda Ash - Price and Supply - Demand: The futures price rebounded at night, and the spot market is weak. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand from glass industries is poor [11]. - Outlook: Limited upward space for the futures price, and a short recommendation for the 01 contract [11].