国信证券晨会纪要-20250606

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The issuance of special government bonds this week is 176 billion [7] - The net financing of government bonds for the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1) is 1,374 billion, and for the 23rd week (June 2 - June 8) is 2,485 billion, with a cumulative total of 6.3 trillion, exceeding last year's total by 3.6 trillion [7] - The issuance of local government bonds for the 22nd week is 1,374 billion, and for the 23rd week is 505 billion, with a cumulative total of 3.7 trillion, exceeding last year's total by 2 trillion [7] Group 2: Textile and Apparel Industry - The U.S. tariff suspension for 90 days is set to expire on July 8, with brands expressing concerns about profit impacts due to tariffs [9] - Brands with a higher revenue share from the U.S. market are more affected, with Uniqlo's U.S. revenue share at only 7%, while Adidas and PUMA are at 20% [9] - Companies with lower exposure to the U.S. market, such as Shenzhou International and Jian Sheng Group, have less than 20% of their revenue from the U.S. [10] - The net profit margins of companies are expected to remain stable even if tariffs are shared, with Shenzhou International having a net profit margin of 20.9% [10] - Investment recommendations include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which have low exposure to the U.S. market and strong profit margins [12] Group 3: Construction and Building Materials - The price of cement clinker in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by 30 yuan/ton, with plans for further price increases in June [13] - The issuance of special bonds has reached 1.63 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [13] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from national strategic investments, with recommendations for state-owned enterprises like China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction [15] Group 4: Automotive Industry - Xpeng Motors reported a 331% year-on-year increase in sales for Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 15.8 billion, a 141% increase [31][32] - The new version of the MONA M03 model saw over 10,000 pre-orders within one hour of its launch [31] Group 5: Public Utilities - The public utilities sector is characterized by its "just need" attributes, with a shift towards low-carbon energy sources [18] - The consumption of natural gas is projected to grow by 8.6% in 2024, with a long-term target of 15% by 2030 [19] - The China Securities Index for public utilities is currently undervalued, with a strong dividend payout and defensive attributes [20] Group 6: Chemical Industry - Brent crude oil averaged $64.0 per barrel in May, with a decrease of $2.5 from the previous month [21] - OPEC+ plans to continue increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [22] - The demand for crude oil is expected to grow by 730,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 [23] Group 7: Internet Industry - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.63% in May, while the Nasdaq Internet Index increased by 8.52% [24] - The overall performance of internet companies remains stable, with recommendations for Tencent Music and NetEase as defensive stocks [26]