尿素早评：关注后市反弹机会-20250606
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-06 02:18

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating in the report Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the rebound opportunities of urea in the future market and still suggest mainly buying on dips The reasons are that the market sentiment of coal has changed recently, which may reduce the drag on coal - chemical industry, and from the perspective of urea demand, the domestic drought has eased, June - July is the peak season for top - dressing of northern corn, and the loosening of export policies and price decline will stimulate speculative demand, so the demand for urea in the next two months is not bad and the possibility of a deep decline is small [1] Summary According to Relevant Contents Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On June 5, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1670 yuan/ton, 1701 yuan/ton, and 1722 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 36 yuan/ton (- 2.11%), - 28 yuan/ton, and - 52 yuan/ton (- 2.93%) compared to June 4 Domestic spot prices in different regions also showed different degrees of change, such as a - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.16%) change in Shanxi, - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) in Henan [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 149 yuan/ton on June 5, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to June 4 The 01 - 05 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - The upstream anthracite prices in Henan decreased by 100 yuan/ton (- 8.47%) to 1080 yuan/ton on June 5 compared to June 4 Downstream prices such as compound fertilizer and melamine also showed different degrees of decline, for example, the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 0.68%) [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1768 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1768 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1718 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1722 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the position was 245709 lots [1]