安粮期货商品期货投资早参-20250606

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Rapeseed oil contract 2509 may test the lower support platform in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices show signs of breaking away from the moving - average system, and attention should be paid to its effectiveness for defense [5] - Carbonate lithium contract 2507 may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [8] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold levels at low positions due to news disturbances [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly fluctuate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound with improved sentiment [12] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at a low level with a still - weak fundamental situation [13] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Rapeseed Oil - Spot Information: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan, is 9,270 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market Analysis: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while far - month supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short and medium term [2] Soybean Meal - Spot Information: Spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - Market Analysis: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive international soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream procurement is weak, and inventories are slowly accumulating [3] Corn - Spot Information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,204 yuan/ton; in North China and Huanghuai, it is 2,423 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - Market Analysis: Abroad, good weather in US corn - growing areas eases concerns, but Sino - US trade may increase import pressure. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the grain - transition period. Wheat may replace corn in feed use, and downstream demand is weak [4] Copper - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,540 yuan, down 700 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [5] - Market Analysis: US economic data and political factors affect the possible interest - rate cut path. Global trade frictions continue. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material issues persist, and copper inventories are declining [5] Carbonate Lithium - Spot Information: The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market Analysis: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventories are high. Supply capacity utilization is above average, and demand is differentiated. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries and ternary batteries are shrinking [6] Steel - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56%, social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - Market Analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a lower valuation. Policy supports the real - estate industry. Raw material prices are weak, and inventory levels are low [8] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Information: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and coke inventory is 246.10 million tons [9] - Market Analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low due to steel mill production cuts, and inventories are slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - Spot Information: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - Market Analysis: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are falling, Brazilian shipments are rising, and port inventories are decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is differentiated [10] Crude Oil - Spot Information: No specific spot price information provided - Market Analysis: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions affect supply. OPEC has lowered global demand growth forecasts, and trade disputes raise concerns about demand [11] Rubber - Spot Information: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece rubber is 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 14,100 yuan/ton [12] - Market Analysis: Trade - war tariffs and oversupply drag down rubber prices. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound. Supply is abundant with full - scale tapping in domestic and Southeast Asian regions [12] PVC - Spot Information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - Market Analysis: Supply capacity utilization is increasing, demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and social inventories are decreasing [13] Soda Ash - Spot Information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - Market Analysis: Supply is increasing with a higher start - up rate and production. Inventories are slightly increasing, and demand is average, with downstream resistance to high - priced goods [14]