宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250606

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures contract 2509 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the support level of MA5. The bullish sentiment dominates, leading to a slightly bullish oscillation of ore prices [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the futures price is deeply at a discount, and the market sentiment has warmed up, so the downward resistance of ore prices is large. In the short - term, the ore prices will continue the trend of oscillating higher, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and slightly bullish. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment dominates, causing the ore prices to oscillate strongly. The support level of MA5 should be focused on [1]. Market Driving Logic - Macro - level positive news reappears, and the market sentiment has warmed up, leading to the stabilization of ore prices. The demand for iron ore continues to decline, but the decline is limited and remains at a high level within the year. During the off - season, the steel mill production weakens, and the demand - side positive effect is not strong [2]. - Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments have both increased. With the expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush, the overseas ore supply remains at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted and the output has decreased, the decrease is not sustainable. Overall, the iron ore supply is increasing [2]. - Currently, the iron ore fundamentals show a weak - stable situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the ore prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the deep discount of the futures price and the warming market sentiment, the downward resistance is large. In the short - term, the bullish atmosphere dominates, and the ore prices will continue to oscillate higher. The performance of finished steel products should be observed [2].