五矿期货早报有色金属-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices face increasing resistance to rise due to the marginal improvement of supply tightness and weakened consumer resilience, despite improved domestic commodity sentiment and tight raw material supply [1]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Although the low inventory of aluminum ingots and bars provides support, the expected demand is pressured by the US tariff increase [3]. - Lead prices may decline further as the demand is weak, and the cost support of recycled lead may weaken [4]. - Zinc prices have a high risk of decline due to the expected surplus of zinc ore and the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory with weak terminal consumption [6]. - Tin prices are expected to have limited rebound space as the supply release trend is hard to change and the demand has no significant increase [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to be bearish in the follow - up, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices may have a limited rebound due to high production and inventory pressure [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by cost, and short - selling on rallies with light positions is recommended [14]. - Stainless steel market is expected to continue the weak oscillating pattern due to low industry confidence, weak terminal demand, and reduced cost support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - LME copper closed up 0.61% to $9707/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78570 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3350 to 138000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased to 60.4%. The domestic social inventory declined slightly, and the spot premium decreased. The import of domestic copper spot was in a loss, and the scrap - refined spread narrowed [1]. - The recommended operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77800 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9580 - 9780 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed down 0.48% to $2475/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20075 yuan/ton. The inventory of SHFE aluminum futures decreased to 4.8 tons, and the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 50.4 tons. The import window for alumina opened [3][13]. - The recommended operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.17% to 16693 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.08 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, and the cost support of recycled lead may weaken [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.33% to 22257 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 7.93 tons. The zinc ore is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc ingot production is expected to increase in June [6]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated strongly due to concerns about supply. However, the supply release trend is hard to change, and the demand has no significant increase. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the domestic main contract operating range of 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated strongly. The production of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat. The LC2507 contract closed down 1.60%. The production and inventory are high, and the price rebound is limited. The recommended operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 61500 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - The alumina index decreased by 3.8% to 2939 yuan/ton. The import window opened, and the inventory decreased. Short - selling on rallies with light positions is recommended, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating range of 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [13][14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed down 0.24% to 12690 yuan/ton. The social inventory increased. The market is expected to continue the weak oscillating pattern [16].