甲醇日评：短期反弹-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The methanol market had a short - term rebound, but there is insufficient upward momentum. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving force perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its own fundamentals. The supply, including imports and inland supply, has recovered rapidly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices): MA01 decreased from 2330 yuan/ton to 2319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.47%; MA05 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton or 0.31%; MA09 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.48% [1] - Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average): Prices in Taicang increased from 2297.50 yuan/ton to 2307.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.44%; in Shandong, it increased from 2140 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.23%; in Guangdong, it decreased from 2295 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.11%; in Shaanxi, it increased from 1920 yuan/ton to 1937.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.91%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it decreased from 2225 yuan/ton to 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Inner Mongolia, it increased from 1875 yuan/ton to 1892.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.93% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 32.50 yuan/ton to - 11.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 470 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 decreased from 482.50 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.52% [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Profit: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased from 646.60 yuan/ton to 577.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 10.67%; the profit of East China MTO decreased from - 467.07 yuan/ton to - 477.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.50 yuan/ton or 2.25%; the profit of acetic acid decreased from 545.45 yuan/ton to 515.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 5.50%; the profit of MTBE remained unchanged at 221.52 yuan/ton; the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; the profit of another product remained unchanged at 898 yuan/ton [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2263 yuan/ton, closing at 2259 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 741486 lots and an open interest of 812450 lots. There was a decrease in volume and open interest, and all contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - Foreign Information: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1] 5. Trading Strategy - In the previous trading day, MA had a small rebound, closing at 2275 in the night session. Recently, the rebound of oil prices and coal prices, as well as the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading, provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. However, in the long run, methanol has insufficient upward momentum [1]