宝城期货煤焦早报-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on the futures of coking coal and coke, suggesting that both are likely to run weakly. It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the supply side of coking coal, especially the production and Mongolian coal imports [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a decline, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is a weak operation. The core logic is a mix of long and short factors with a low - level rebound [1]. - For coke 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a decline, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is a weak operation. The core logic is that the strengthening support of raw materials leads to an oscillating adjustment [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - On the night of June 5, the main coking coal contract closed at 789.5 points, rising 4.64% during the night session and continuing the rebound trend. The latest offer of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 900.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.3%, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 870 yuan/ton. Previously, due to long - term bearish factors such as "loose supply expectations" and "concerns about black terminal demand", the price dropped continuously. On June 3, the JM2509 contract fell to 709 yuan/ton, reaching a historical low. Recently, disturbances on the supply side of coking coal have increased, including safety and environmental inspections in China and the impact of falling domestic coal prices on Mongolian coal imports. In May, the cumulative number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 21,166, a 3.5% decrease from April and an 18.8% decrease from the same period last year. Overall, the increase in supply - side disturbances and the intensification of market gaming led to a low - level rebound of futures [5]. Coke (J) - The latest offer of standard - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1476 yuan/ton. On the night of June 5, the main coke contract closed at 1363.5 yuan/ton, with a 1.64% increase during the night session. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of coke has no obvious change, but the uncertainty on the coking coal supply side has increased, leading to a significant rise in the volatility of coking coal and coke futures. The current focus of market gaming is on the coking coal supply side. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent production and Mongolian coal imports. In the short term, it is advisable to be cautious and wait and see. If the expectation of coking coal supply contraction is disproven, coke is expected to return to a weak pattern [7].