宝城期货国债期货早报-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall view is "oscillation", mainly due to rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". Uncertainty in tariff prospects and weakening domestic macro - economic indicators, along with a moderately loose monetary policy and zero implied interest - rate cut expectations in market interest rates, lead to strong bottom support for bond futures. However, recent net liquidity withdrawal by the central bank has weakened short - term upward momentum. Future market direction depends on policy guidance, and the financial policies at the June 18th Lujiazui Forum can be monitored. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: bond futures oscillated and retreated after an intraday high yesterday. Uncertainty in tariff prospects, weakening domestic macro - economic indicators, a moderately loose monetary policy, and zero implied interest - rate cut expectations in market interest rates provide strong bottom support for bond futures. Recent net liquidity withdrawal by the central bank has weakened short - term upward momentum. Future market direction depends on policy guidance, and the financial policies at the June 18th Lujiazui Forum can be monitored. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].