Goldman Sachs·2025-06-06 02:37Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Xiaomi Corp. with a 12-month target price of HK$65, indicating an upside potential of 27.6% from the current price of HK$50.95 [17][20]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) during the first phase of the 6.18 shopping festival reached Rmb16.9 billion, representing a 64% year-over-year increase compared to Rmb10.3 billion at the same time in 2024 [3][5]. - The report highlights that Xiaomi's flagship series did not make the top 10 list this year, attributed to aggressive inventory clearance by Apple, which temporarily increased competition in the premium segment [1][3]. - Xiaomi's discount level during the 6.18 festival is noted to be more disciplined at around 16%, compared to 22% during the same period last year, with potential discounts reaching up to 29% when considering national subsidies [4][16]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Xiaomi ranked No.1/2 in sales volume and GMV among domestic smartphone brands on JD.com, maintaining four of the top 10 best-selling models [3][7]. - The company experienced stronger GMV growth in smartphones (+46%/110% year-over-year) compared to AIoT products (+39%/91% year-over-year) at its proprietary channels [7]. Competitive Landscape - Apple's aggressive inventory clearance has led to a temporary recovery in its market share in China, with a noted increase of 6.6 percentage points year-over-year [1][13]. - The report anticipates that the ratio of Phase I GMV to total shopping festival GMV for this year's 6.18 shopping festival will be around 50%, higher than previous years [3][10]. Future Outlook - Xiaomi is positioned for multi-year ecosystem expansion with projected revenue and EPS CAGRs of 26% and 39% from 2024 to 2027, supported by its "Human x Car x Home" strategy [17][18]. - The report emphasizes Xiaomi's robust balance sheet and competitive advantages in the EV supply chain, enhancing its appeal in the electric vehicle market [17].