新能源及有色金属日报：特朗普提高钢铝关税，铜品种亦受到影响走高-20250606

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price was affected by Trump's increase in steel and aluminum tariffs and rose. Although there are concerns about the demand in the second half of the year, considering the relatively stable outlook of the power sector, the probability of a significant weakening in demand is low. It is recommended to mainly use dips to buy for hedging, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton. Arbitrage should be postponed, and short put options at 76,000 yuan/ton are advisable [1][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On June 5, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,050 yuan/ton and closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, a -0.04% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,960 yuan/ton and closed at 78,570 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: There was a price difference between different copper brands. The upstream and downstream's shipping and purchasing sentiment weakened. The low - price spot goods returned to par value after trading at a discount. It is expected that the spot trading will remain at par value in the short term [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical Aspects: The number of initial jobless claims in the US reached an 8 - month high. The US trade deficit decreased by 55.5% to 61.6 billion US dollars. The European Central Bank cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points. Trump said it was difficult to achieve an immediate cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and might sanction both sides. The People's Bank of China will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation with a 3 - month term [3] - Mine End: Marimaca Copper completed a private placement of 24.4 million Canadian dollars (17.7 million US dollars) to promote the Marimaca copper project in Chile. The project's total indicated resource is 200 million tons with a copper grade of 0.45% and a copper content of 900,000 tons; the inferred resource is 37 million tons with a copper grade of 0.38% and a copper content of 914,100 tons. It is expected to produce 40,000 tons of copper cathode per year in the first 6 years after the open - pit mine is put into operation in 2028, with a total copper recovery of 430,000 tons in 12 years [3] - Smelting and Import: In May, Chile's copper export volume was 181,234 tons, and the export volume to China was 32,721 tons. The export volume of copper ore and concentrates was 1,485,670 tons, and the export volume to China was 978,141 tons. The IEA predicts that the copper supply gap will reach 30% in the "Stated Policies Scenario" by 2035, and the gap will widen in other scenarios [4] - Consumption: In 2025, the domestic power grid plans to invest 650 billion yuan. The cumulative investment in the first 4 months was 140.8 billion yuan, a 14.6% year - on - year increase. The real estate market is in a slump. The automobile industry is divided, with traditional vehicle production decreasing by 4.6% and new energy vehicle production increasing by 48%. The home appliance industry had a good performance in 2024 but has a high export dependence. The electronics field may become a new highlight [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,500 tons to 138,000 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 246 tons to 31,687 tons. On June 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,800 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Hedging: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: Postpone [7] - Options: Short put at 76,000 yuan/ton [7]