尿素日报：农需不及预期，尿素大幅走低-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral, with the expectation that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June and July, the peak season for agricultural demand, the downstream agricultural demand started slower than expected, leading to a decline in the urea futures market [2] - Urea coal - based enterprises still have decent profits, with few maintenance activities. The plant operating rate remains high, and the daily urea output will stay at a relatively high level in the future [2] - The downstream industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine has weakened [2] - The export inspection of urea has been gradually carried out, and the export window has opened. Domestic urea is being exported in an orderly manner, increasing the willingness of factories to ship to ports. Both factory and port inventories have risen [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On June 5, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,722 yuan/ton (-52). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,840 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,850 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was 1,870 yuan/ton (-30). The basis in Shandong was 128 yuan/ton (+32), in Henan was 118 yuan/ton (+42), and in Jiangsu was 148 yuan/ton (+22) [1] Urea Production - As of June 5, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.43% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0354 million tons (+54,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 205,000 tons (+0) [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 383 yuan/ton (-20), and the export profit was 488 yuan/ton (-4) [1] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The export inspection of urea has been gradually carried out, and the export window has opened, with domestic urea being exported in an orderly manner [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of June 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.13% (-2.96%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.31% (+1.33%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.47 days (-0.41) [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0354 million tons (+54,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 205,000 tons (+0) [1]