白银价格大幅走高，特朗普关税政策依然多变

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core View The Fed officials have significant differences in future monetary policy, and the market is also concerned about future overall demand and economic outlook. Although current inflation data is not affected by tariffs, it reflects a decline in consumer confidence. Trump's changeable policies will continuously affect future inflation expectations. Therefore, in the current situation, gold and silver are recommended to be bought on dips for hedging, and the gold-silver ratio can be shorted at high levels [8]. Summary by Sections Market News and Key Data - US initial jobless claims soared to an 8-month high, and the US trade deficit shrank by 55.5% to $61.6 billion due to Trump's tariffs [1] - The European Central Bank cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points, and Lagarde hinted that the rate-cutting cycle would end [1] - Trump said it was difficult to achieve an immediate ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine in a short time and hinted at possible sanctions on both sides [1] - Silver prices rose sharply, breaking through the $36/ounce mark for the first time since February 2012, possibly due to Trump's announcement of raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 5, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (SHFE) main contract opened at 782.40 yuan/gram, closed at 783.72 yuan/gram, up 0.17% from the previous trading day [2] - The SHFE silver main contract opened at 8454 yuan/kg, closed at 8473 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day [2] - During the night session, the SHFE gold main contract closed at 780.78 yuan/gram, down 0.46% from the afternoon close [2] - The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8715 yuan/kg, up 2.89% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 5, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.37%, down 0.09% from the previous trading day [3] - The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.48%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long position decreased by 44 lots and the short position decreased by 16 lots [4] - The total trading volume of SHFE gold contracts decreased by 3.24% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 78 lots and the short position decreased by 169 lots [4] - The total trading volume of SHFE silver contracts decreased by 27.07% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 935.64 tons from the previous trading day [5] - The silver ETF position increased by 120.16 tons to 14,672.53 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On June 5, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -3.37 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -525.99 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 92.50, up 0.05% from the previous trading day [6] - The overseas gold-silver ratio was 98.03, up 0.67% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On June 5, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market increased by 3.63% from the previous trading day [7] - The trading volume of silver increased by 4.19% from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 19,510 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 64,440 kg [7]