长江期货市场交易指引-20250606

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish with fluctuations [5] - Treasury bonds: Neutral [5] - Rebar: Neutral [7] - Iron ore: Neutral [7] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral [8][9] - Copper: Neutral [11] - Aluminum: Bearish [13] - Nickel: Neutral [15] - Tin: Neutral [17] - Gold: Neutral [18] - Silver: Neutral [18] - PVC: Bearish [21] - Soda ash: Bearish for the 01 contract [33] - Caustic soda: Bearish [23] - Styrene: Bearish [26] - Rubber: Bearish [28] - Urea: Bearish [30] - Methanol: Bearish [31] - Polyolefins: Neutral [32] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bullish with fluctuations [35] - Apples: Neutral [35] - PTA: Neutral [36] - Live pigs: Bearish [38] - Eggs: Bearish [40] - Corn: Bullish with fluctuations [41] - Soybean meal: Bullish [42] - Oils and fats: Neutral [46] Core Views - The index may fluctuate strongly due to increased market trading volume and a shift in hotspots from new consumption to the TMT sector after the China-US leaders' call [5] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, with short - term varieties benefiting directly from the current relatively loose policy, but multiple disturbing factors still exist [5] - The prices of most commodities in the black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock sectors are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a downward or upward trend depending on supply - demand fundamentals, macro - policies, and other factors [7][11][21] Summary by Category Macro - finance - Index: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to China - US relations and market hot - spot shifts [5] - Treasury bonds: Suggested to wait and see. Focus on the roll - over of the 0.7 trillion 6M repurchase on the 16th [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price is at a relatively low level, and the supply - demand is balanced. It may accumulate inventory slightly in the future, with a suggested wait - and - see approach [7] - Iron ore: The price is affected by macro news, and the port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Coking coal and coke: The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to supply - side news, profit - repair rhythm, and import coal costs [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The fundamentals still support the price, and it may remain volatile before the holiday. Pay attention to the position of nearby contracts [11] - Aluminum: The supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions in Shanghai Aluminum and try to go long on alumina at low levels [13][14] - Nickel: The cost is firm, but the medium - long - term supply is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see or go short at high prices [15] - Tin: The supply - demand gap is improving, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended for interval trading [17] - Gold and silver: Affected by US tariffs and Fed policies, the prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended for interval trading [18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Weak cost and demand, high production and inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - Soda ash: The 01 contract is recommended to go short. The spot is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [33] - Caustic soda: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to factors such as alumina production and 6 - 8 month maintenance [23] - Styrene: The supply - demand is becoming loose, and it is recommended to go short at high prices. Pay attention to crude oil trends and tariff progress [26] - Rubber: The demand is not improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to macro news [28] - Urea: The supply exceeds demand. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options or waiting for price stability [30] - Methanol: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 2150 - 2300 [31] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to downstream demand and policies [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: Globally, the supply - demand is loose, but due to improved China - US relations, the price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [35] - Apples: The market is stable, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [35] - PTA: Affected by falling oil prices and weakening downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to geopolitical influences [36] Agricultural Livestock - Live pigs: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to go short at resistance levels [38] - Eggs: The short - term demand is weak, and the long - term supply may increase. It is recommended to go short at high prices [40] - Corn: The short - term price has support, and the medium - long - term supply - demand is tightening. It is recommended to go long at the lower limit of the range and pay attention to substitutes [41] - Soybean meal: The short - term is range - bound, and the medium - long - term is bullish. It is recommended to operate in the range and go long after callbacks [42] - Oils and fats: The trends are differentiated. It is recommended for interval trading and pay attention to the spread between oil and meal [46]