东海证券晨会纪要-20250606

Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently facing a resistance level at 3418 points and a support level at 3174 points, with the index closing at 3376 points on June 4, 2025, just 42 points away from the resistance level [5][6] - If the index effectively breaks above the 3418 points resistance, it may signal a shift from a long-term sideways trading range to an upward trend, with the 3418 points level becoming a strong support [5][6] - The index has attempted to break the 3418 points resistance five times since October 8, 2024, but has not succeeded, indicating significant market indecision [6] Group 2: Consumer Trends - During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic tourism saw 119 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, while tourism revenue reached 42.73 billion yuan, growing by 5.9% [9][10] - The average spending per person for domestic travel was 359.08 yuan, a slight decrease of 2.11% compared to the same period last year [9] - Short-distance and surrounding travel dominated, with nearly 50% of travelers opting for nearby destinations, and family trips being a significant trend due to the coinciding Children's Day [10][11] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating ongoing liquidity support in the market [16] - The tax authority reported that the private economy's vitality has been improving, with a 3.6% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for the private sector in the first four months of 2025, outpacing the overall growth of national enterprises [17][18] - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, reflecting a continued accommodative monetary policy stance in response to economic conditions [21]