银河证券每日晨报-20250606

Core Insights - The report highlights the gradual implementation of the 136 document details across provinces, with a focus on ensuring profitability for existing projects and clearer revenue expectations [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of mechanism electricity quantity and price, with specific guidelines from Shandong and Guangdong provinces, indicating a stronger support for existing projects compared to Inner Mongolia [3] - The national green electricity direct connection policy is seen as a significant step towards promoting green electricity consumption and reducing electricity costs for end-users, particularly export-oriented enterprises [4] Segment Summaries Thermal Power - Coal prices remain low, with the Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping to 610 RMB/ton as of June 3, 2025, and an average price of 688 RMB/ton year-to-date, a year-on-year decrease of 189 RMB/ton or 22%, which may mitigate the negative impact of long-term electricity price declines in 2025 [5] - Companies with a high market coal ratio and small electricity price reduction are recommended for attention [5] Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Current low interest rates enhance the investment value of hydropower and nuclear power [5] Renewable Energy - Continuous policy support for electricity price reform and green electricity consumption is expected to foster sustainable industry development, presenting a pivotal investment opportunity [5] - The report anticipates that provinces with stronger renewable energy consumption capabilities will set higher mechanism electricity quantity ratios, aligning with the 136 document's "new and old connection" approach [3] - The first bidding price in Shandong is capped at the previous year's settlement average price, with wind and solar prices at 0.357 and 0.346 RMB/kWh respectively, indicating a discount of 10% and 12% compared to coal benchmark prices [3] Electricity Consumption Trends - In April, total electricity consumption reached 772.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with notable growth in new business sectors such as information transmission and electric vehicle charging services [5] - The report notes a decline in hydropower generation growth, while wind and solar generation growth accelerated [5]